Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate
AbstractThis paper investigates whether the forecasting performance of Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models can be improved by incorporating prior beliefs on the steady state of the time series in the system. Traditional methodology is compared to the new framework-in which a mean-adjusted form of the models is employed-by estimating the models on Swedish inflation and interest rate data from 1980 to 2004. Results show that the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the models is practically unchanged for inflation but significantly improved for the interest rate when informative prior distributions on the steady state are provided. The findings in this paper imply that this new methodology could be useful since it allows us to sharpen our forecasts in the presence of potential pitfalls such as near unit root processes and structural breaks, in particular when relying on small samples. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Rupa Duttagupta & N. Barrera, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Crisison Canada," IMF Working Papers 10/5, International Monetary Fund.
- Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011.
"Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
- Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- PÃ¤r Ã–sterholm & Helge Berger, 2008. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars," IMF Working Papers 08/53, International Monetary Fund.
- PÃ¤r Ã–sterholm & Lisandro Abrego, 2008. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/46, International Monetary Fund.
- Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- Pär Österholm, 2010.
"Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data,"
Finnish Economic Papers,
Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
- Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Working Paper 112, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Lisandro Abrego & Pär Österholm, 2010. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1788-1810, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.