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Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis

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Author Info
Robertson, John C
Tallman, Ellis W

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Abstract

Federal-funds rate-forecast errors from vector autoregressive (VAR) models used for monetary policy analysis and fitted by ordinary least squares (OLS) are large relative to those from the futures market. Using three different structural VAR models, we show that forecasts based on a shrinkage estimator dominate the OLS-based forecasts--even after restricting the lag length and/or imposing exact unit-root restrictions--and are broadly comparable to the futures-market forecasts. Our results refute the perception that VAR models forecast the funds rate poorly in general and suggest that using stochastic prior restrictions can provide an effective way of improving forecast accuracy without sacrificing structural interpretation.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 324-30
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:19:y:2001:i:3:p:324-30

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  1. Robert A. Eisenbeis & Andy Bauer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao A. Zha, 2006. "Transparency, expectations, and forecasts," Working Paper Series 637, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jon Faust & Eric Swanson & and Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data," International Finance Discussion Papers 720, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eric Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Empirical analysis of policy interventions," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March. [Downloadable!]
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  6. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Forecasting using relative entropy," Working Paper 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kenneth B. Petersen & Vladimir Pozdnyakov, 2008. "Predicting the Fed," Working papers 2008-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2006. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Working Paper Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  10. John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & William R. Melick, 2005. "Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures," Working Paper 0507, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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