Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis
AbstractFederal-funds rate-forecast errors from vector autoregressive (VAR) models used for monetary policy analysis and fitted by ordinary least squares (OLS) are large relative to those from the futures market. Using three different structural VAR models, we show that forecasts based on a shrinkage estimator dominate the OLS-based forecasts--even after restricting the lag length and/or imposing exact unit-root restrictions--and are broadly comparable to the futures-market forecasts. Our results refute the perception that VAR models forecast the funds rate poorly in general and suggest that using stochastic prior restrictions can provide an effective way of improving forecast accuracy without sacrificing structural interpretation.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 19 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
Other versions of this item:
- John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," Working Paper 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher A. Sims, 1989.
"A nine variable probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
14, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1993. "A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 179-212 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1034, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999.
"Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1985.
"Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience,"
274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997.
"Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998.
"Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
- Rudebusch, G.D., 1996. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," Papers 269, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Dreze, Jacques H. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983.
"Bayesian analysis of simultaneous equation systems,"
Handbook of Econometrics,
in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 517-598
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996.
"Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models,"
96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-20.
- repec:wop:humbsf:1999-4 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994.
"Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
12, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Charles Evans & Kenneth Kuttner, 1998.
"Can VARs describe monetary policy?,"
9812, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
- Tao Zha, 1998. "A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 16-29.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.