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External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model

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  • Pär Österholm
  • Mr. Lisandro Abrego

Abstract

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surroundingmacroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-statepriors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variancedecomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most importantfactors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 percent of the variance in Colombian GDP growthrespectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used toanalyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we showthat the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growthwould be non-negligible but still a mild decline by historical standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Pär Österholm & Mr. Lisandro Abrego, 2008. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model," IMF Working Papers 2008/046, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    2. Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2008. "Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2008/069, International Monetary Fund.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Uruguay: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/103, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gerardo Alberto Villa Durán, 2014. "Un índice coincidente para Medellín," Ensayos Sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 13858, Banco de la República - Economía Regional.
    5. Gerardo Alberto Villa Durán, 2014. "Un índice coincidente para Medellín," Ensayos sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 58, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    7. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2019. "Impacts of China's crash on Asia-Pacific financial integration: Volatility interdependence, information transmission and market co-movement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 28-46.
    8. Mr. Serhat Solmaz & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2015. "How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy: Nowcasting an Emerging Market," IMF Working Papers 2015/269, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Enrique Flores & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Benedict J. Clements, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks - Insights from the GIMF for Colombia," IMF Working Papers 2009/059, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Rupa Duttagupta & N. Barrera, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada—What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 2010/005, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Carlos Andrés BALLESTEROS RUIZ & Javier Andrés ROJAS AGUILERA, 2015. "International shocks and the Colombian economy: A Global VAR Approach," Archivos de Economía 13012, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    12. repec:col:000101:013858 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2018. "China–Africa financial markets linkages: Volatility and interdependence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1140-1164.
    14. Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, 2009. "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," Borradores de Economia 557, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Gabriel Rodríguez & Renato Vassallo, 2022. "Time Evolution of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Pacific Alliance Countries: Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-508, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/232, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Baharudin, Azfar Hilmi, 2018. "A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Analysis of Price and Industrial Shocks on the Malaysian Economy," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(3), pages 191-204.
    18. José Franco Iparraguirre & Fernando Cuyutupac Borja, 2020. "Impacto de los factores externos en el Producto Bruto Interno Peruano durante 1994-2018," Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, vol. 2(01), pages 64-75.

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    Keywords

    WP; GDP growth; GDP; monetary policy;
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