Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data
AbstractThis paper investigates whether forecasts of the Swedish unemployment rate can be improved by using business or household survey data. We conduct a simulated out-of-sample forecast exercise in which the performance of a Bayesian VAR model with only macroeconomic variables is compared to that when the model also includes variables based on survey data. Results show that the forecasting performance at short horizons can be improved. The improvement is largest when forward-looking variables based on data from the manufacturing industry are employed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Finnish Economic Association in its journal Finnish Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 23 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (Spring)
Other versions of this item:
- Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Working Paper 112, National Institute of Economic Research.
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Antonio Ribba, 2006. "The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 497-511, June.
- Andy C.C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2006. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 185-197, January.
- Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2005. "Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 369-404.
- Galina Hale & Òscar Jordà, 2007. "Do monetary aggregates help forecast inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr13.
- Golan, Amos & Perloff, Jeffrey M, 2002.
"Superior forecasts of the U.S. unemployment rate using a nonparametric method,"
CUDARE Working Paper Series
956, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Amos Golan & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 2004. "Superior Forecasts of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Using a Nonparametric Method," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 433-438, February.
- Golan, Amos & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 2002. "Superior Forecasts of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Using a Nonparametric Method," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2bw559zk, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Philip Rothman, .
"Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates,"
9618, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
- Milas, Costas & Rothman, Philip, 2008.
"Out-of-sample forecasting of unemployment rates with pooled STVECM forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-121.
- Costas Milas & Philip Rothman, 2007. "Out-of-Sample Forecasting of Unemployment Rates with Pooled STVECM Forecasts," Working Paper Series 49-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
- Adolfson, Malin & Andersson, Michael K. & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias & Vredin, Anders, 2005.
"Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks,"
Working Paper Series
188, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006.
- Malin Adolfson & Michael K. Andersson & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 111-144, December.
- Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2009.
"Does money still matter for U.S. output?,"
Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 143-146, March.
- Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 779-792, June.
- John A. Cotsomitis & Andy C. C. Kwan, 2006. "Can Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? Evidence from the European COmmission Business and Consumer Surveys," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 597-610, January.
- Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Significance tests harm progress in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 321-327.
- Pär Österholm, 2008. "Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 41-51.
- Norman R. Swanson, 2000. "An Out of Sample Test for Granger Causality," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0362, Econometric Society.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
- Jared Laxton & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Ondra Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Douglas Laxton & Ioan Carabenciov & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 08/279, International Monetary Fund.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Editorial Secretary).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.