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A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

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  • Clements, Michael P.
  • Galvao, Ana Beatriz

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  • Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:20:y:2004:i:2:p:219-236
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    34. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Testing The Expectations Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates In Threshold Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 567-585, September.
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    2. Aslanidis, Nektarios, 2007. "Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach," Working Papers 2072/5318, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    3. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2015. "Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1047-1072, November.
    4. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
    5. Ali Taiebnia & Shapour Mohammadi, 2023. "Forecast accuracy of the linear and nonlinear autoregressive models in macroeconomic modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2045-2062, December.
    6. Anzuini Alessio, 2022. "The non-linear effects of the Fed asset purchases," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 205-218, April.
    7. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2013. "Time series non-linearity in the real growth / recession-term spread relationship," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 047, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    8. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    9. Pär Österholm, 2008. "Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 41-51.
    10. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek, 2004. "Vector equilibrium correction models with non-linear discontinuous adjustments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 628-651, December.
    11. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:258-273 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.
    13. Topal, Pinar, 2015. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility," SAFE Working Paper Series 90, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:8:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
    16. Sugita, Katsuhiro & 杉田, 勝弘, 2006. "Time Series Analysis of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Japanese Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Presence of Multiple Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers 2006-15, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Jan G. De Gooijer & Antoni Vidiella-i-Anguera, 2005. "Estimating threshold cointegrated systems," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(8), pages 1-7.
    18. Nicholas Apergis & Emmanuel Mamatzakis & Christos Staikouras, 2011. "Testing for Regime Changes in Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 258-273, August.
    19. Ana Beatriz C. Galvão, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487, May.
    20. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Testing The Expectations Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates In Threshold Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 567-585, September.
    21. Alessio Anzuini & Francesca Brusa, 2016. "Carry trades and exchange rate volatility: a TVAR approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1046, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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