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Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions

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Author Info
Eric M. Leeper
Tao Zha

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Abstract

We construct linear projections of macro variables conditional on hypothetical paths of monetary policy, using as an example an identified VAR model. Hypothetical policies are restricted to ones where both the policy intervention and its impacts are consistent with history -- otherwise the linear projections are likely to be unreliable. We use the approach to interpret Federal Reserve decisions, modeling their frequent reassessment in light of new information about the tradeoffs policymakers face. The interventions we consider matter: they can shift projected paths and probability distributions of macro variables in economically meaningful ways.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9063.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9063

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1998. "The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 149-194, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Altig, David E & Carlstrom, Charles T & Lansing, Kevin J, 1995. "Computable General Equilibrium Models and Monetary Policy Advice," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1472-93, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao A. Zha, 1998. "Does monetary policy generate recessions?," Working Paper 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  14. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
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  21. Michael S. Hanson, 2006. "Varying Monetary Policy Regimes: A Vector Autoregressive Investigation," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Christopher A. Sims, 1998. "Role of interest rate policy in the generation and propagation of business cycles: what has changed since the '30s?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 121-175. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Uhlig, H., 2001. "Did the FED surprise the markets in 2001? : a case study for vars with sign restrictions," Discussion Paper 88, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru," Working Papers 2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Documents de Travail 115, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing the Lucas critique in monetary policy models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Michael S. Hanson, 2006. "Varying Monetary Policy Regimes: A Vector Autoregressive Investigation," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Christopher Sims & Tao Zha, 2002. "Macroeconomic switching," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eric Leeper, 2003. "An "Inflation Reports" Report," NBER Working Papers 10089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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