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An "Inflation Reports" Report

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  • Eric Leeper

Abstract

This paper evaluates the Swedish Riksbank's Inflation Reports' and draws comparisons among the Reports issued by the Riksbank, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This report poses and addresses a common set of questions about each of the three central banks' Inflation Reports'. It assesses the credibility of inflation forecasts, evaluates the Reports' discussions of the current state of the economy, asks if a coherent set of models underlies the Reports, and discusses whether the Reports hold the banks sufficiently accountable for their decisions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10089.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10089

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References

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  1. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  6. repec:wop:humbsf:1999-4 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Forecasting using relative entropy," Working Paper 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  11. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 235-322.
  12. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting "M" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
  13. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Scott Roger & Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? The International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/163, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Pär Österholm, 2006. "Incorporating judgement in fan charts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Andersson, Malin & Dillen, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2006. "Monetary policy signaling and movements in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1815-1855, November.
  4. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2011. "How informative are central bank assessments of macroeconomic risks?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Andersson, Malin & Dillén, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy Signaling and Movements in the Swedish Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 132, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jan 2004.
  6. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2007. "Optimal inflation Targeting: Further Developments of Inflation Targeting," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 6, pages 187-225 Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis-Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Efficient forecast tests for conditional policy forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 293-303, October.
  9. Matteo Fragetta & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2007. "Strategic Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 0706, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  10. Martha López, 2006. "Algunos Criterios Para Evaluar Una Meta De Inflación De Largo Plazo," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001967, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  11. Kevin Dowd, 2004. "The Swedish Inflation Fan Charts: An Evaluation of the Riksbank?s Inflation Density Forecasts," Occasional Papers 10, Industrial Economics Division, revised 11 Jan 2004.
  12. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
  13. Kevin Clinton & Marianne Johnson & Jaromir Benes & Douglas Laxton & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Structural Models in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 10/56, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2011. "Evaluating macroeconomic risk forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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