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An "Inflation Reports" Report

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  • Eric Leeper

Abstract

This paper evaluates the Swedish Riksbank's Inflation Reports' and draws comparisons among the Reports issued by the Riksbank, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This report poses and addresses a common set of questions about each of the three central banks' Inflation Reports'. It assesses the credibility of inflation forecasts, evaluates the Reports' discussions of the current state of the economy, asks if a coherent set of models underlies the Reports, and discusses whether the Reports hold the banks sufficiently accountable for their decisions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10089.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10089

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  1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  2. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Eric Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Empirical analysis of policy interventions," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  7. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  8. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Forecasting using relative entropy," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  10. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N. & West,K.D., 2003. "Policy evaluation in uncertain economic environments," Working papers 15, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  11. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting "M" back in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 761, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
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Cited by:
  1. Kevin Dowd, 2004. "The Swedish Inflation Fan Charts: An Evaluation of the Riksbank?s Inflation Density Forecasts," Occasional Papers, Industrial Economics Division 10, Industrial Economics Division, revised 11 Jan 2004.
  2. Pär Osterholm, 2009. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(2), pages 387-415, 06.
  3. Kevin Clinton & Marianne Johnson & Jaromir Benes & Douglas Laxton & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Structural Models in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 10/56, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Martha López, . "Algunos criterios para evaluar una meta de inflación de largo plazo," Borradores de Economia 386, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Malte Knüppel & Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2012. "How Informative Are Central Bank Assessments of Macroeconomic Risks?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 87-139, September.
  6. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2007. "Optimal inflation Targeting: Further Developments of Inflation Targeting," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 6, pages 187-225 Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis: Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Andersson, Malin & Dillén, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy Signaling and Movements in the Swedish Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 132, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jan 2004.
  9. Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 639-665, June.
  10. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2006. "The Instrument-Rate Projection under Inflation Targeting: The Norwegian Example," Working Papers 75, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  11. Fragetta, Matteo & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Strategic monetary and fiscal policy interactions: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 855-879, October.
  12. Andersson, Malin & Dillen, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2006. "Monetary policy signaling and movements in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1815-1855, November.
  13. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
  14. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2011. "Evaluating macroeconomic risk forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  15. Scott Roger & Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/163, International Monetary Fund.

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