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Identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the UK

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  • Cover, James P.
  • Mallick, Sushanta K.

Abstract

Using quarterly data for the period 1985:1–2011:1, this paper uses a stylised, open economy, structural VAR model to identify the types of shocks responsible for macroeconomic fluctuations in the UK economy. The stylised model implies a set of short-run restrictions that allow for the identification of the shocks. The importance of each shock is determined by examining forecast-error variance decompositions, impulse response functions, and implied long-run (or permanent) effects. The results presented here imply that two shocks (called the technology and IS shocks) are relatively more important than other shocks. Monetary shocks do exhibit long-run monetary neutrality, but clearly monetary policy is not responsible for a meaningful share of output and employment fluctuations during the sample period. The estimated VAR and structural disturbances imply that the model accurately reflects the UK economy. There is little evidence of a price puzzle or an exchange rate puzzle (evidence against uncovered interest rate parity) in response to an unexpected monetary policy tightening.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 1627-1648

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1627-1648

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Structural VAR; Monetary policy; Exchange rates; Economic fluctuations; UK economy;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Mark J. Holmes & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1315, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  2. Banerji, Sanjay & Ventouri, Alexia & Wang, Zilong, 2014. "The sovereign spread in Asian emerging economies: The significance of external versus internal factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 566-576.
  3. Varang Wiriyawit & Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Structural VARs, Deterministic and Stochastic Trends: Does Detrending Matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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