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How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence

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Abstract

This paper analyzes how monetary policy responds to exchange rate movements in open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate movements. We address this issue using a structural VAR model that is identified using a combination of sign and short-term (zero) restrictions. Our suggested identification scheme allows for a imultaneous reaction between the variables that are observed to respond intraday to news (the interest rate and the exchange rate), but maintains the recursive order for the traditional macroeconomic variables (GDP and inflation). Doing so, we find strong interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate variation. Our results suggest more theory consistency in the monetary policy responses than what has previously been reported in the literature.

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File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2008/WP-200815/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2008/15.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 22 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2008_15

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Keywords: Exchange rate; monetary policy; SVAR; Bayesian estimation; sign restrictions;

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References

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  1. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Mathias Hoffmann & Andreas Schabert, . "Inflation Dynamics and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," Working Papers 2003_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2003.
  4. Wei Dong, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-586, May.
  5. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
  6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Almuth Scholl & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "New Evidence on the Puzzles. Results from Agnostic Identification on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Ren�e Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-60, December.
  2. Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markow-Switching Structural Investigation," Working Papers 0018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  3. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and macroeconomic variables: Evidence from fast growing emerging economies," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Jarkko Jääskelä & David Jennings, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate: Evaluation of VAR Models," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  5. Jørn Inge Halvorsen & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "Are bank lending shocks important for economic fluctuations?," Working Paper 2009/27, Norges Bank.
  6. Jääskelä, Jarkko P. & Jennings, David, 2011. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate: Evaluation of VAR models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1358-1374.
  7. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Working Paper 2009/06, Norges Bank.
  8. Fei Han & Selim Elekdag, 2012. "What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?," IMF Working Papers 12/43, International Monetary Fund.

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