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UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement

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Nelson, Edward
Nikolov, Kalin

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.

Volume (Year): 55 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 353-370
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:55:y:2003:i:4:p:353-370

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316. [Downloadable!]
  4. Neiss, Katharine & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," CEPR Discussion Papers 2848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-19, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. K. Alec Chrystal, 1984. "Dutch disease or monetarist medicine?: The British economy under Mrs. Thatcher," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 27-37. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bean, Charles R & Symons, James, 1989. "Ten Years of Mrs. T," CEPR Discussion Papers 316, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Bean, C. & Symons, J., 1990. "Ten Years Of Mrs T.," Papers 370, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
    • Charles Bean & James Symons, 1989. "Ten Years of Mrs. T," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 13-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  11. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hendry, David F, 1994. "HUS Revisited," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 86-106, Summer.
  18. Ehrmann, M. & Smets, F., 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Papers 59, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
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  19. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Alternative monetary policy rules : a comparison with historical settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 49-79. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 115, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  25. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Perez, Stephen J., 2001. "Looking back at forward-looking monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 509-521. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Macro-economic Forecasting and Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 1001-13, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Charles Bean, 2000. "The Australian Economic 'Miracle': A View from the North," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 1990s Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  30. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation," Working Paper 2005/14, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2005. "The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Andreas Beyer & Vitor Gaspar & Christina Gerberding & Otmar Issing, 2009. "Opting out of the Great Inflation: German monetary policy after the break down of Bretton Woods," Working Paper Series 1020, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using ex-post data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa.We argue that previous comparative studies in this fi," Ruhr Economic Papers 0133, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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