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Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries

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Author Info
Katharine Neiss
Edward Nelson

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Abstract

Recent studies by Galí and Gertler (1999), Galí, Gertler, and López-Salido (GGL) (2001a, 2001b), and Sbordone (1998, 2001) have argued that the New Keynesian Phillips curve (Calvo pricing model) is empirically valid, provided that real marginal cost rather than detrended output is used as the variable driving inflation. GGL (2001a) conclude that real marginal cost is not closely related to the output gap, and that models for monetary policy therefore need to include labor market rigidities. An alternative interpretation is that marginal cost and the output gap are closely related, but that the latter needs to be measured in a manner consistent with dynamic general equilibrium models. To date, there has been little econometric investigation of this alternative interpretation. This paper provides estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia using theory-based estimates of the output gap. We find little support for the notion that labor costs explain inflation dynamics better than the output gap, and so conclude that modeling of labor market rigidities is not a high priority in analyzing inflation.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2002:i:mar:x:5

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation," Working Papers 2003-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2005-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2004. "The use of real-time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Peter N. Smith & Mike Wickens, 2006. " The New Consensus in Monetary Policy: Is the NKM fit for the purpose of inflation targeting?," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0610, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Results For Luxembourg," BCL working papers cahier_etude_11, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paloviita , Maritta, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations: further results," Research Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips curves - a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 265, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Peter Mc Adam, . "Labour market dynamics in the euro area: A model-based sensitivity analysis," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 09, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 79, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Argia Sbordone, 2002. "An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Boris Hofmann & Matthias Paustian, 2005. "The Persistence and Rigidity of wages and prices," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 71, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 38, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area, and Japan," International Finance Discussion Papers 745, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "Do expected future marginal costs drive inflation dynamics?," Staff Reports 204, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Carla Massidda, 2005. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Italian Manufacturing Sectors," Working Papers 2005.12, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  16. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer Greenslade, 2003. "Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU," Discussion Papers 12, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Janko Gorter, 2005. "Subjective Expectations and New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Europe," DNB Working Papers 049, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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