Simple Monetary Policymaking without the Output Gap
AbstractSeveral research contributions have argued that information about the output gap is essential for a good monetary policy rule. However, as pointed out by Orphanides (2001), there is considerable real-time uncertainty about the size of the output gap. The paper argues that simple monetary policy rules that rely exclusively on (survey-based) information about future and past inflation rates may be more efficient than optimized Taylor rules once real-time output gap uncertainty is accounted for. Even when only information about historical inflation rates is available, a very simple policy rule may be constructed that improves on the Taylor rule.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 6 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006.
"Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap,"
11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2003.
"Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003.
"Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Paper Series 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007.
"Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge,"
Working Paper Series
0764, European Central Bank.
- John C Williams & Athanasios Orphanides, 2005. "Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 400, Society for Computational Economics.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
- Ebru Yuksel & Kývýlcým Metin Ozcan & Ozan Hatipoglu, 2012.
"A Survey on Time Varying Parameter Taylor Rule: A Model Modified with Interest Rate Pass Through,"
2012/08, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
- Scharnagl, Michael & Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Simple interest rate rules with a role for money," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Nikolay Markov & Carlos de Porres, 2011. "Is the Taylor Rule Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence from a Semi-Parametric Modeling Approach," Research Papers by the Department of Economics, University of Geneva 11052, Département des Sciences Économiques, Université de Genève.
- Sra Chuenchoksan & Don Nakornthab & Surach Tanboon, 2008. "Uncertainty in the Estimation of Potential Output and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-04, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.