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Estimating Taylor Rules in a Real Time Setting

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Author Info
Robert R Tchaidze
Abstract

This paper demonstrates how the use of revised data distorts our understanding of past monetary policy decisions Three problems are addressed - the use of (i) contemporaneous rather than lagged data (ii) revised rather than unrevised data; and (iii) leads of data unavailable at the time of policy setting for estimating potential output In order to evaluate each of these distortions separately I have estimated Taylor rules using different sets of estimates of output gap and inflation for three sub-samples corresponding to chairmanship terms of Arthur Burns Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan Three series of estimates are constructed -- series based on revised estimates of data for the whole post-war sample; series based on truncated (excluding leads) subsamples of revised data; and series similar to the previous one but based on unrevised data Although using revised data may produce significantly misleading conclusions the inclusion of leads of the data when estimating the potential level of the economy has a much bigger impact producing coefficients which may have a value less than half of the true one At the same time the use of contemporaneous rather than lagged data does not seem to have a big effect on the final results Among other things I demonstrate that the US monetary policy was less active during Burns' chairmanship and much more anti-inflationary during Greenspan's than traditional analysis would suggest

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 457.

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Date of creation: Aug 2001
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:457

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Athanasios Orphanides, 2000. "Activist stabilization policy and inflation: the Taylor rule in the 1970s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Athanasios Orphanides, 2000. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Working Paper Series 15, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  17. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Edward Nelson, . "UK monetary policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor rules," Bank of England working papers 120, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Robert Tchaidze, 2004. "The Greenbook and U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 04/213, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mandler, Martin, 2008. "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data," MPRA Paper 13498, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2009. [Downloadable!]
  3. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "PPP May not Hold After all: A Further Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 466, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert Tchaidze, 2002. "Greenspan and the Greenbook," Economics Working Paper Archive 472, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Patrick Lünnemann & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2003. "Règle de Taylor: estimation et interprétation pour la zone euro et pour le Luxembourg," BCL working papers 9, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  6. Laurence Ball & Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "The Fed and the New Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive 465, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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