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How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy : An analysis based on real-time data

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Author Info
Gerberding, Christina
Worms, Andreas
Seitz, Franz

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Abstract

Papers estimating the reaction function of the Bundesbank generally find that its monetary policy from the 1970s to 1998 can well be captured by a standard Taylor rule according to which the central bank responds to the output gap and to deviations of inflation from target, but not to monetary growth. This result is at odds with the Bundesbank´s claim that it followed a strategy of monetary targeting. This paper analyses whether this apparent contradiction is due to (a) the use of ex post data which do not necessarily match policy makers? real-time information sets and (b) the omission of important explanatory variables. Accordingly, we compile a real-time data set for Germany including the Bundesbank?s own estimates of potential output and use it to reestimate the Bundesbank?s reaction function. We find that the use of real-time data considerably changes the results. Moreover, when adding the change in the output gap as well as deviations of money growth from target to the set of explanatory variables, we find that both variables are highly significant. This suggests that the Bundesbank took its monetary targets seriously, but also responded to deviations of expected inflation and output growth from target. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,25.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2291

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy; Taylor rule; real-time data; Bundesbank;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Günter Coenen & Andrew T. Levin, 2004. "Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behavior," Working Paper Series 418, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Frömmel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern Europe," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-341, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andreas Beyer & Vítor Gaspar & Christina Gerberding & Otmar Issing, 2009. "Opting out of the Great Inflation: German Monetary Policy after the Break Down of Bretton Woods," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/01, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2005. "The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bernhard Herz & Werner Roeger & Lukas Vogel, . "Optimal Simple Rules for Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union," Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Economics I, Bayreuth University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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