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How does the ECB target inflation?

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  • Surico, Paolo

Abstract

The announced primary objective of the European Central Bank is price stability. While no restrictive reference is given to how the goal should be reached, such a mandate can be thought as a concern to stabilize some relevant macroeconomic aggregates. Accordingly, we frame ECB monetary policy in a general set up that allows policy makers to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output gaps. The empirical analysis on aggregated Euro area data indicates that ECB monetary policy can be characterized by a nonlinear policy rule. While the objective of price stability is symmetric, the one on real activity is not in that output contractions require larger policy responses. Moreover, the actual Euro interest rate highly commoves with the counterfactual rate that the Bundesbank would have followed if charged to set policy rates for the Euro area. JEL Classification: E52, E58

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  • Surico, Paolo, 2003. "How does the ECB target inflation?," Working Paper Series 229, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003229
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    Cited by:

    1. Beniamino Moro, 2005. "The economists "Manifesto" unemployment in the EU seven years later: which suggestions still hold?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 49-66.
    2. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    3. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2006. "How Do Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interact in the European Monetary Union?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 241-326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Benner, Joachim & Carstensen, Kai & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Euroland: Konjunktur verliert wieder an Fahrt," Munich Reprints in Economics 20244, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    5. Duo QIN & Xinhua HE & Pilipinas QUISING & Shiguo LIU, 2010. "Modeling Monetary Policies in China (PRC)," EcoMod2004 330600115, EcoMod.
    6. lahlou, kamal, 2009. "Essai d’estimation de la fonction de réaction de Bank Al-Maghrib [Estimation of Bank Al-Maghrib Reaction Function]," MPRA Paper 98018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2006. "Is the ECB so special? A qualitative and quantitative analysis," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06004, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    8. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September.
    9. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, February.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Back to the rules," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 268/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    11. Benner, Joachim & Carstensen, Kai & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Euroland: Recovery will slow down," Kiel Discussion Papers 415, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Beniamino Moro, 2005. "Il “Manifesto” contro la disoccupazione nell’UE sette anni dopo: quali suggerimenti sono sempre attuali?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 58(230-231), pages 51-69.
    13. Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xinhua & Liu, Shiguo, 2005. "Modeling monetary transmission and policy in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 157-175, March.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    15. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2007. "The ECB monetary policy: Choices and challenges," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 181-194.
    16. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, February.
    17. Colavecchio, Roberta & Carstensen, Kai, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    (asymmetric) central bank policy preferences; Bundesbank counterfactual interest rate target; ECB monetary policy rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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