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Monetary policy in a changing environment

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  • Bank for International Settlements
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    Abstract

    The papers in this volume were presented and discussed at the Autumn Central Bank Economists' Meeting held at the BIS in Basel on 14-15 October 2002. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss challenges that central banks have faced in the current environment characterised by low and comparatively stable inflation, structural supply side improvements, the apparently high credibility of central banks' anti-inflation commitment and liberalised financial markets. These challenges have included learning how to deal with unforeseen potential increases in productivity growth, major expansions in credit and asset prices, and, in some cases, even financial instability and deflation. Another challenge has been the recent sudden and widespread slowdown in economic activity that, uncharacteristically, was not triggered by a tightening of monetary policy designed to quell inflationary pressures but rather by the unwinding of an investment boom. The meeting explored potential changes in the dynamics of the business cycle, in particular the ability to identify inflationary and deflationary pressures, and the implications for monetary policy, including the challenges posed by the zero lower bound on interest rates.

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    This book is provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Papers with number 19 and published in 2003.

    ISBN: 92-9131-649-0
    Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbps:19

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    1. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England.
    3. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    4. Scott, Andrew, 1996. "The Determinants of UK Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060, August.
    6. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics 35, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
    9. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0171, European Central Bank.
    11. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
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