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Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty

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  • Rochelle M. Edge
  • Thomas Laubach
  • John C. Williams

Abstract

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and about the economy's natural rate measures of interest and output. We analyze the characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding parameter estimates. We find that the natural rates of interest and output are imprecisely estimated. We then show that, relative to the case of known parameters, optimal policy under parameter uncertainty responds less to natural-rate terms and more to other variables, such as price and wage inflation and measures of tightness or slack that do not depend on natural rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2007-11.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2007-11

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Keywords: Monetary policy;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2012. "Resuscitating the ad hoc loss function for monetary policy analysis," Discussion Paper Series 2012_06, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2012.
  2. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2008. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in an Estimated Model with Labour Market Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Williams, John C., 2013. "A defense of moderation in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 137-150.
  4. Pei-Tha Gan, 2014. "The Optimal Economic Uncertainty Index: A Grid Search Application," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 159-182, February.
  5. André P. Calmon & Thomas Vallée & João B. R. Do Val, 2009. "Monetary policy as a source of uncertainty," Working Papers hal-00422454, HAL.
  6. Carl Walsh, 2007. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Real Objectives," Research and Policy Notes 2007/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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