Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty

Contents:

Author Info

  • Rochelle M. Edge

    ()

  • Thomas Laubach

    ()

  • John C. Williams

    ()

Abstract

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies uncertainty about the model’s dynamics, utility-based welfare criterion, and the “natural” rates of output and interest that would prevail absent nominal rigidities. We estimate the degree of uncertainty regarding natural rates due to parameter uncertainty. We find that optimal Taylor rules under parameter uncertainty respond less to the output gap and more to price inflation than would be optimal absent parameter uncertainty. We also show that policy rules that focus solely on stabilizing wages and prices yield welfare outcomes very close to the first-best.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://cbe.anu.edu.au/research/papers/camawpapers/Papers/2008/Edge_Laubach_Williams_162008.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Cama Admin)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2008-16.

as in new window
Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2008-16

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Email:
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2005-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams & Rochelle M. Edge, 2007. "Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy under Parameter Uncertainty," 2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 311, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models," Working Paper Series 2005-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2004. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2004-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  8. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February.
  10. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:111-44 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Patrick J. Kehoe, 2006. "How to Advance Theory with Structural VARs: Use the Sims-Cogley-Nason Approach," NBER Working Papers 12575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999, Society for Computational Economics 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
  15. Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics 35, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. Ann-Charlotte Eliasson & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 99/75, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Alastair Hall & Atsushi Inoue & James M. Nason & Barbara Rossi, 2007. "Information criteria for impulse response function matching estimation of DSGE models," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2007-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  19. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, 2005. "How to Compare Taylor and Calvo Contracts: a comment on Michael Kiley," CDMA Working Paper Series, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis 200504, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  20. Kosuke Aoki & Kalin Nikolov, 2006. "Rule-Based Monetary Policy under Central Bank Learning," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 145-195 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Frederico S. Finan & Robert Tetlow, 1999. "Optimal control of large, forward-looking models efficient solutions and two examples," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1999-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 81, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  23. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
  24. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  25. John C. Williams, 2003. "The natural rate of interest," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct31.
  26. Jordi Gali, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  28. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  30. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Estimation and control of an optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1181-1215, May.
  32. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  33. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128.
  35. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0171, European Central Bank.
  36. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 71-89, March.
  37. John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin, 2003. "Parameter Uncertainty and the Central Bank's Objective Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 215, Society for Computational Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2014. "Resuscitating the ad hoc loss function for monetary policy analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 313-317.
  2. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Sahuc, J-G., 2011. "On the Welfare Costs of Misspecified Monetary Policy Objectives," Working papers, Banque de France 320, Banque de France.
  3. Pei-Tha Gan, 2014. "The Optimal Economic Uncertainty Index: A Grid Search Application," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 159-182, February.
  4. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2007. "Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2007-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. André P. Calmon & Thomas Vallée & João B. R. Do Val, 2009. "Monetary policy as a source of uncertainty," Working Papers hal-00422454, HAL.
  6. John C. Williams, 2013. "A defense of moderation in monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2013-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2008. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in an Estimated Model with Labour Market Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Carl Walsh, 2007. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Real Objectives," Research and Policy Notes 2007/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2008-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.