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Asymmetric Reaction Functions for the Euro Area

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Author Info
Paolo Surico

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Abstract

This paper offers a preliminary evaluation of ECB conduct of monetary policy by estimating a fairly general reaction function for the euro area. The specification of the policy rule embodies a number of nonlinearities which are shown to stem from asymmetric preferences and a convex aggregate supply curve. Asymmetric preferences allow, but do not require, policy-makers to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the reference values, and translate into an asymmetric reaction function. The empirical analysis on monthly euro-area aggregated data over the last 5 years reveals that ECB monetary policy is effectively described by a nonlinear policy rule according to which output contractions have required a larger policy response than output expansions. Moreover, actual movements in the euro interest rate closely resemble the simulated path that a Bundesbank-type of behaviour would have implied. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 19 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 44-57
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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:19:y:2003:i:1:p:44-57

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  1. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2007. "Understanding monetary policy in Central European countries using Taylor-type rules: the case of the Visegrad four," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(3), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 451, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry L., 2006. "Do Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences Help Explain Observed Inflation Outcomes?," Staff General Research Papers 12501, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Rosaria Rita Canale & Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani & Oreste Napolitano, 2007. "On Keynesian effects of (apparent) non-Keynesian fiscal policies," Discussion Papers 8_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Maria Eleftheriou & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era - Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 659, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy : An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  11. Páez-Farrell, Juan, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice: Evidence from the UK and the US," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change," Caepr Working Papers 2006-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Ansgar Belke & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Back to the rules," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 268/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Manuel M F Martins & Alvaro Aguiar, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 41, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule? - Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0133, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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