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Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real-Time Data

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  • Jens Richard Clausen
  • Carsten-Patrick Meier

Abstract

Using a real-time data set for German GDP over the period from 1973 to 1998 we calculate various measures of output gaps and use these to calibrate and estimate Taylor-type reaction functions for the Bundesbank. Most of the reaction functions we find fit the Bundesbank's actual policy, as represented by the short-run interest rate, quite well. In contrast to previous findings based on ex post revised data for the output gap, we find the reaction coefficients to resemble quite closely those originally proposed by Taylor for some of our real-time measures of the output gap. Broad monetary aggregates such as M3, in contrast, only played a small role for the Bundesbank's interest rate decisions. Given the good record of the Bundesbank in fighting inflation, the results give support to the use of the Taylor rule for monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 141 (2005)
Issue (Month): II (June)
Pages: 213-246

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Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2005-ii-3

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Keywords: German real-time data; output gap; monetary policy rules;

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References

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Seitz, Franz & Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 0254, European Central Bank.
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  4. Clarida, R. & Gertler, M., 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," Working Papers 96-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  7. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
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Blog mentions

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  1. Myths and Realities of the 1970s
    by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2013-04-09 14:11:00
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Cited by:
  1. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
  3. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim, 2006. "Gute Chancen auf einen langanhaltenden Aufschwung in Deutschland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3941, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  6. Kai Carstensen & Roberta Colavecchio, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.
  8. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2009. "Shocks, Monetary Policy and Institutions: Explaining Unemployment Persistence in "Europe" and the United States," CDMA Working Paper Series 200903, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  9. Bluhm, Marcel, 2011. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  10. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Oskamp, Frank & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2006. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2006," Kiel Discussion Papers 436/437, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  11. Mandler, Martin, 2011. "Threshold effects in the monetary policy reaction function of the Deutsche Bundesbank," MPRA Paper 32430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
  13. Carstensen, Kai & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Scheide, Joachim, 2003. "Euroland: Stagnation wird allmählich überwunden," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3081, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  14. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
  15. Ince, Onur & Papell, David H., 2013. "The (un)reliability of real-time output gap estimates with revised data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 713-721.
  16. Erler, Alexander & Krizanac, Damir, 2009. "Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik
    [Taylor Rule and the Subprime Crisis - An Empirical Analysis of the US Monetary Policy]
    ," MPRA Paper 18604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  18. Ansgar, Rannenberg, 2009. "Disinflation and the NAIRU in a New-Keynesian New-Growth Model (Extended Version)," MPRA Paper 13610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2006. "Euroland: konjunkturelle Expansion erreicht Höhepunkt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3892, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  20. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.
  22. Par Osterholm, 2005. "The Taylor rule and real-time data - a critical appraisal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 679-685.

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