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Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real-Time Data

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  • Jens Richard Clausen
  • Carsten-Patrick Meier

Abstract

Using a real-time data set for German GDP over the period from 1973 to 1998 we calculate various measures of output gaps and use these to calibrate and estimate Taylor-type reaction functions for the Bundesbank. Most of the reaction functions we find fit the Bundesbank's actual policy, as represented by the short-run interest rate, quite well. In contrast to previous findings based on ex post revised data for the output gap, we find the reaction coefficients to resemble quite closely those originally proposed by Taylor for some of our real-time measures of the output gap. Broad monetary aggregates such as M3, in contrast, only played a small role for the Bundesbank's interest rate decisions. Given the good record of the Bundesbank in fighting inflation, the results give support to the use of the Taylor rule for monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 141 (2005)
Issue (Month): II (June)
Pages: 213-246

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Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2005-ii-3

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Keywords: German real-time data; output gap; monetary policy rules;

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References

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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  3. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
  4. Seitz, Franz & Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 0254, European Central Bank.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  8. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  1. Myths and Realities of the 1970s
    by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2013-04-09 14:11:00
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