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Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function

Author

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  • Clémentine Florens

    (Université de Toulouse 1)

  • Eric Jondeau

    (Banque de France & Univ. Paris 12)

  • Hervé Le Bihan

    (Banque de France)

Abstract

Estimating a forward-looking monetary policy rule by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) has become a popular approach since the influential paper by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (1998). However , an abundant econometric literature underlines to the unappealing small- samples properties of GMM estimators. Focusing on the Federal Reserve reaction function, we assess GMM estimates in the context of monetary policy rules. First, we show that three usual alternative GMM estimators yield substantially different results. Then, we compare the GMM estimates with two Maximum-Likelihood (ML) estimates, obtained using a small model of the economy. We use Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the empirical results. We find that the GMM are biased in small sample, inducing an overestimate of the inflation parameter . The two-step GMM estimates are found to be rather close to the ML estimates. By contrast, iterative and continuous-updating GMM procedures produce more biased and more dispersed estimators.

Suggested Citation

  • Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0111003
    Note: Type of Document - ; prepared on ; to print on ; pages: 29
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pierre Siklos & Martin Bohl, 2009. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 39-59, February.
    3. Siklos, Pierre L. & Bohl, Martin T., 2007. "Do actions speak louder than words? Evaluating monetary policy at the Bundesbank," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 368-386, June.
    4. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
    5. Gunther Schnabl & Christian Danne, 2005. "The Changing Role of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate for Japanese Monetary Policy," International Finance 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Grunspan, T., 2005. "The Fed and the Question of Financial Stability: An Empirical Investigation," Working papers 134, Banque de France.
    7. lahlou, kamal, 2009. "Essai d’estimation de la fonction de réaction de Bank Al-Maghrib [Estimation of Bank Al-Maghrib Reaction Function]," MPRA Paper 98018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Abdul RASHID & Farah WAHEED, 2021. "Forward-Backward-Looking Monetary Policy Rules: Derivation and Empirics," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 71-92, December.
    9. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M.F. Martins, 2005. "The Preferences of the Euro Area Monetary Policy‐maker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 221-250, June.
    10. Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "Règle de Taylor et politique monétaire dans la zone euro," Working papers 117, Banque de France.
    11. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2002. "A 'hybrid' monetary policy model: evidence from the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 949-955.
    12. Mario Jovanovic & Tobias Zimmermann, 2008. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," Ruhr Economic Papers 0077, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Jovanovic Mario & Zimmermann Tobias, 2010. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, July.
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0077 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(9), pages 148-176, January.
    16. Nicolas Moumni & Salma DASSER, 2011. "Relevance of a Taylor-type rule in the active monetary policy of Bank Al-Maghrib ?," EcoMod2011 2766, EcoMod.
    17. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
    19. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "The Role of Asset Prices in Euro Area Monetary Policy: Specification and Estimation of Policy Rules and Implications for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2005,6, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
    20. Jovanović, Mario & Zimmermann, Tobias, 2008. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," Ruhr Economic Papers 77, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward-looking model; monetary policy reaction function; GMM estimator ; FIML estimator ; small-sample properties of an estimator .;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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