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The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

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Author Info
Orphanides, Athanasios
van Norden, Simon

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Abstract

A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides the basis for countercyclical monetary policy in many models. In this paper, we evaluate the usefulness of alternative univariate and multivariate estimates of the output gap for predicting inflation. Many of the ex post output gap measures we examine appear to be quite useful for predicting inflation. However, forecasts using real-time estimates of the same measures do not perform nearly as well. The relative usefulness of real-time output gap estimates diminishes further when compared to simple bivariate forecasting models which use past inflation and output growth. Forecast performance also appears to be unstable over time, with models often performing differently over periods of high and low inflation. These results call into question the practical usefulness of the output gap concept for forecasting inflation.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4830.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4830

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Related research
Keywords: inflation forecasts; output gap; Phillips curve; real-timing data;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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