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Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output

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  • Cukierman, Alex
  • Lippi, Francesco

Abstract

This Paper characterizes endogenous monetary policy when policymakers are uncertain about the extent to which movements in output and inflation are due to changes in potential output or to cyclical demand and cost shocks. We refer to this informational limitation as the ‘information problem’ (IP). Main results of the Paper are: 1. Policy is likely to be excessively loose (restrictive) for some time when there is a large decrease (increase) in potential output in comparison to a full information benchmark. This provides a partial but unified explanation for the inflation of the seventies and the price stability of the nineties. 2. Errors in forecasting potential output and the output gap are generally serially correlated. 3. A quantitative assessment, based on an empirical model of the US economy developed by Rudebusch and Svensson (1999) indicates that, during and following periods of large changes in potential output, the IP significantly affects the dynamics of inflation and output. 4. The increase in the Fed’s conservativeness between the seventies and the nineties, and a more realistic appreciation of the uncertainties surrounding potential output in the second period, imply that the IP problem had a stronger impact in the seventies than in the nineties.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3763.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3763

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Keywords: filtering; inflation; monetary policy; output gap; potential output;

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References

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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0014, European Central Bank.
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  25. Kevin J. Lansing, 2002. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Working Paper Series 2000-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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