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Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty

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  • Wollmershäuser, Timo

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of simple policy rules in an open economy. By introducing a high degree of exchange rate uncertainty we find that policy rules with an important feedback from movements in the real exchange rate are very robust to uncertainty about the true exchange rate model. A closed economy rule performs badly in most exchange rate specifications. This is in contrast to the findings of many other studies. In our view, this result is due to the fact that these studies assume a known and reliable relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Munich Reprints in Economics with number 19716.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Macroeconomics 3 28(2006): pp. 493-519
Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:19716

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carlos Garcia, 2012. "Why Does Monetary Policy Respond to the Real Exchange Rate in Small Open Economies? A Bayesian Perspective," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv287, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  2. Furlani, Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti & Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Laurini, Márcio Poletti, 2010. "Exchange rate movements and monetary policy in Brazil: Econometric and simulation evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 284-295, January.
  3. Nils Jannsen & Melanie Klein, 2011. "The International Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy Shocks," Kiel Working Papers 1718, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2010. "Is more exchange rate intervention necessary in small open economies? The role of risk premium and commodity shocks," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv248, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  5. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 200810, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  6. Parhizgari, A.M. & Pavlova, I., 2007. "Post-euro EU and US interest rates and foreign exchange rates: Are they in harmony or in disarray," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 616-636, December.
  7. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2007. "The Effects of Joining a Monetary Union on Output and Inflation Variability in Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 8633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Bask, Mikael, 2011. "A Case for Interest Rate Inertia in Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2011:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  9. Bayangos, V.B., 2006. "Exchange rate uncertainty and monetary transmission in the Philippines," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19193, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
  10. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
  11. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2009. "Rationale behind the responses of monetary policy to the real exchange rate in small open economies," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv228, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  12. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Roger, Scott, 2011. "How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1590-1617.
  13. Tronzano, Marco, 2009. "Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 103-131.
  14. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," NIPE Working Papers 26/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  15. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2014. "Why does monetary policy respond to the real exchange rate in small open economies? A Bayesian perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 789-825, May.

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