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Monetary policy rules in emerging market economies: issues and evidence

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Author Info
M. S. Mohanty
Marc Klau

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Abstract

The paper reviews the recent conduct of monetary policy and central banks' interest rate setting behaviour in emerging market economies. Using a standard open economy reaction function, we test whether central banks in emerging economies react to changes in inflation, output gaps and the exchange rate in a consistent and predictable manner. In most emerging economies the interest rate responds strongly to the exchange rate; in some, the response is higher than that to changes in the inflation rate or the output gap. The result is robust to alternative specification and estimation methods. This highlights the importance of the exchange rate as a source of shock and supports the "fear of floating" hypothesis. Evidence also suggests that in some countries the central bank's response to a negative inflation shock might be weaker than to a positive shock.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 149.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:149

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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy rules; emerging market economies;

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  1. Frömmel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern Europe," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-341, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  2. Roberto Chang, 2008. "Inflation Targeting, Reserves Accumulation, and Exchange Rate Management in Latin America," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004518, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2008. "Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic," Working Papers RP2008/95, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  4. Marcelo Sánchez, 2005. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates - do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," Working Paper Series 548, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Raghbendra Jha, 2005. "Inflation Targeting in India: Issues and Prospects," ASARC Working Papers 2005-04, Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Alexandra Ferreira Lopes, 2007. "The Costs of EMU for Transition Countries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 14561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 409, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Maria Isabel Restrepo Estrada & Diana Constanza Restrepo Ochoa, 2007. "El canal del crédito bancario en Colombia: 1995-2005. Una aproximación mediante modelos de umbral," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 67, pages 99-118, Julio-Dic. [Downloadable!]
  10. Borek Vasicek, 2009. "The monetary policy rules and the inflation process in open emerging economies: evidence for 12 new EU members," Working Papers wpdea0903, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jose De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman R., 2004. "Overcoming Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Policies in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 302, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  12. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Fiscal Storms: Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 200810, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. M S Mohanty & Michela Scatigna, 2005. "Has globalisation reduced monetary policy independence?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and monetary policy in emerging markets, volume 23, pages 17-58 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  14. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman R., 2004. "Flexible Exchange Rate Regime and Forex Interventions: The Chilean Case," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 11, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  15. Robert Neil McCauley, 2006. "Understanding monetary policy in Malaysia and Thailand: objectives, instruments and independence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 172-198 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  16. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman R, 2005. "Flexible exchange rate regime and forex intervention," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 127-38 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  17. Sek, Siok Kun, 2008. "Interactions between monetary policy and exchange rate in inflation targeting emerging countries: the case of three East Asian countries," MPRA Paper 12034, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
  18. Stefan Gerlach & Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2006. "Monetary policy regimes and macroeconomic outcomes: Hong Kong and Singapore," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 40-64 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2007. "Understanding monetary policy in Central European countries using Taylor-type rules: the case of the Visegrad four," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(3), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
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