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Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences

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Author Info
Paolo Surico (Bocconi University)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a new framework for monetary policy analysis in which the decision makers are allowed to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the target values. Reduced-form and structural estimates of the central bank first order condition indicate that the preferences of the Fed have been highly asymmetric only before 1979, with the response to output contractions being larger than the response to output expansions of the same magnitude. This asymmetry is shown to induce an average inflation bias of 1.11% that appears to have substantially contributed to the great inflation of the 1960s and 1970s.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0210002.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2002
Date of revision: 09 Dec 2003
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0210002

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on PC; to print on HP; pages: 26 ; figures: included. 26 pages, pdf
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Keywords: nonlinear monetary policy rules asymmetric loss function Euler equation

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paolo Surico, 2003. "How does the ECB target inflation?," Macroeconomics 0305005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Manuel M F Martins & Alvaro Aguiar, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 41, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alexander Mihailov, 2005. "Has More Independence Affected Bank of England's Reaction Function under Inflation Targeting? Lessons from Taylor Rule Empirics," Economics Discussion Papers 601, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gomes, O. & Mendes, D. A. & Mendes, V. P. & Sousa Ramos, J., 2007. "Endogenous Cycles in Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 139, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gomes, Orlando, 2006. "Monetary policy and economic growth: combining short and long run macro analysis," MPRA Paper 2849, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry L., 2006. "Do Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences Help Explain Observed Inflation Outcomes?," Staff General Research Papers 12501, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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