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Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S

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  • DOLADO, J.J.
  • MARIA-DOLORES, R.
  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

Abstract

This paper derives optimal monetary policy rules in setups where certainty equivalence does not hold because either central bank preferences are not quadratic, and/or the aggregate supply relation is nonlinear. Analytical results show that these features lead to sign and size asymmetries, and nonlinearities in the policy rule. Reduced-form estimates indicate that US monetary policy can be characterized by a nonlinear policy rule after 1983, but not before 1979. This finding is consistent with the view that the Fed's inflation preferences during the Volcker-Greenspan regime differ considerably from the ones during the Burns-Miller regime.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 18-2003.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:18-2003

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Keywords: Nonlinear Taylor rules; inflation targets; asymmetric preferences; nonlinear Phillips curve; monetary policy;

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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
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  9. Pedro Pablo Alvarez Lois, 2000. "Asymmetries In The Capacity-Inflation Trade-Off," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 470.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
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  13. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
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  15. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2004. "The inflation bias when the central bank targets the natural rate of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-107, February.
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  17. DOLADO, J.J. & MARIA-DOLORES, R. & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Cahiers de recherche 18-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  18. Bec Frédérique & Ben Salem Mélika & Collard Fabrice, 2002. "Asymmetries in Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence for U.S. French and German Central Banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, July.
  19. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 1998. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," FMG Discussion Papers dp306, Financial Markets Group.
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  22. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  23. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
  24. Nobay, A. R. & Peel, D. A., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with a nonlinear Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 159-164, May.
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