This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Are Contemporary Central Banks Transparent about Economic Models and Objectives and What Difference Does it Make?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Cukierman, Alex

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper documents the opaqueness of central banks about the economic models they use to choose policy but argues that this is largely due to the lack of consensus about the correct model of the economy within the economic profession. The latter is illustrated by contrasting three currently popular models of the transmission mechanism. Although the inflation targets of Western central banks are currently quite clear they tend to be hazy about their output targets and about whether they are strictor flexible inflation targeters (in Svensson's (1997) sense), and in the second case, how flexible. They are remarkably silent about the shape of their loss function in the entire range of output gaps. The second part of the paper first reviews the case for believing that at least some central banks are, given inflation, more averse to negative than to positive output gaps and then investigates the consequences of this asymmetry for average inflation. It is shown, for both an expactations augmented Phillips curve as well as for a New -Keynesian transmission mechanism, that in the presence of uncertainty about the upcoming state of the economy flexible inflation targeters with assymetric objectives induce an onflation bias even if their output target is the potential level. Furtehrmore the inflationary tendencies of policymakers who believe in sticky prices are stronger than of those who do not. But, provided prices are really in sticky, the economy is non neutral even in the long run, and the policies of the former also induce a higher level of output. The consequences of transparency about those mechanisms for credibility are evaluated. Dieses Papier zeigt zunächst, dass Notenbanken hinsichtlich des Modells, das sie ihrer Politik zugrundelegen, Stillschweigen wahren. Es wird weiterhin argumentiert, dass dies daran liegt, dass sich die Volkswirte über das richtige Modell nicht einig sind. Dazu werden 3 verbreitete Modelle des Transmissionsprozesses einander gegenübergestellt. Währende die Inflationsziele westlicher Zentralbanken recht klar sind, besteht größere Unsicherheit über ihre Outputziele und darüber, ob sie ihr Inflationsziel strikt oder flexibel (und gegebenenfalls wie flexibel) anstreben (im Sinne von Svensson, 1997). Zentralbanken sind auch bezüglich der Form ihrer Verlustfunktion verschwiegen, insbesondere was die Output-Lücke angeht. Dies gilt, obwohl in einer unsicheren Welt Politikentscheidungen von der Form der Verlustfunktion abhängen. Der zweite Teil des Papiers geht zunächst auf den Fall ein dass zumindestens einige Zentralbanken, bei gegebener Inflation eine größere Abneigung gegenüber negativen als gegenüber positiven Output-Lücken haben. Die Folgen dieser Assymetrie für die durchschnittliche Inflation werden untersucht. Sowohl bei einer erwartungsabhängigen Phillipskurve als auch bei einem Neo-Keynesianischen Transmissionsmechanismus haben Zentralbanken mit einer flexiblen Inflationsrate und einer asymmetrischen Zielfunktion mit einem Inflationsbias zu tun. Das gilt selbst wenn das Outputziel mit dem Produktionspotential übereinstimm. Zudem sind die Inflationstendenzen höher wnn Wirtschaftspolitiker daran glauben, dass sich die Preise nur allmählich an ihr Gleichgewicht anpassen, als wenn sie solche Vorstellungen nicht hätten. Wenn allerdings solche Vorstellungen über die Preise tatsächlich zutreffen, dann ist Geld auch langfristig nicht neutral. die Politiker vom ersten Typ ermöglcihen dann ein höheres Output-Niveau. Es wird geprüft, welche Folgen es für die Glaubwürdigkeit hat, wenn für Transparenz über diese Mechanismen gesorgt wird.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://opus.zbw-kiel.de/volltexte/2006/4151/pdf/200105dkp.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2001,05.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4151

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt
Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
Email:
Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (ZBW - German National Library for Economics).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 1998. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," FMG Discussion Papers dp306, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1995. "Two Fallacies Concerning Central Bank Independence," NBER Working Papers 5075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jon Faust & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Transparency and credibility: monetary policy with unobservable goals," International Finance Discussion Papers 605, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Willem H. Buiter, 1999. "Alice in Euroland," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 181-209, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Naveira Barrero, Manuel, 2000. "Asymmetries In Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence For Four Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 2441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, . "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Bernhard Winkler, 2000. "Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making," Working Paper Series 26, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2001. "The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cahiers de recherche 2001-22, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Geraats, P.M., 2004. "Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0473, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Xavier Debrun & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "The Discipline-Enhancing Role of Fiscal Institutions: Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 07/171, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transparency in the Inflation Targeting," Macroeconomics 0502025, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paolo Surico, 2003. "Measuring the time-inconsitency of US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 291, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. W.H. Verhagen & S.C.W. Eijffinger, 2001. "Flexible Inflation Targeting under a Non-Linear Phillipscurve," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 663, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Elke Muchlinski, 2005. "The Lucas Critique and Keynes Response.Considering the History of Macroeconomics," Macroeconomics 0503019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002. [Downloadable!]
  8. Manuel M F Martins & Alvaro Aguiar, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 41, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. W.H. Verhagen, 2002. "Interest Rate Stepping, Interest Rate Smoothing and Uncertainty: Some Views from the Literature," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 683, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Wasim Shahid Malik & Musleh-ud Din, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transparency in Pakistan: An Independent Analysis," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:44, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Meixing DAI & Eleftherios SPYROMITROS, 2007. "Walsh’s Contract and Transparency about Central Bank Preferences for Robust Control," Working Papers of BETA 2007-30, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
  12. Geraats, P.M, 2005. "Transparency of Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0549, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: The Case of Asymmetric Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Viktor Kotlan & David Navratil, 2003. "Inflation Targeting as a Stabilisation Tool: Its Design and Performance in the Czech Republic," Macroeconomics 0310006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2007. "Monetary policy and its informative value," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  16. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2008. "Nonlinear Taylor Rules and Asymmetric Preferences in Central Banking: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1488-1488. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & van der Cruijsen, Carin A B, 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Seth B. Carpenter, 2004. "Transparency and monetary policy: what does the academic literature tell policymakers?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  19. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, . "Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts," Bank of England working papers 143, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," FEP Working Papers 182, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
  21. Cukierman, Alex & Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The Inflation Bias Revisited: Theory and Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 3761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Working Papers 2002-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Cukierman, Alex & Muscatelli, V. Anton, 2002. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability? -- Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About five million pdf files are downloaded through RePEc every year.

This page was last updated on 2008-10-7.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.