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Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences

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  • Paolo Surico

Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a new framework for monetary policy analysis in which the decision makers are allowed to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the target values. Reduced-form and structural estimates of the central bank first order condition indicate that the preferences of the Fed have been highly asymmetric only before 1979, with the response to output contractions being larger than the response to output expansions of the same magnitude. This asymmetry is shown to induce an average inflation bias of 1.11% that appears to have substantially contributed to the great inflation of the 1960s and 1970s

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 8.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:8

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Keywords: asymmetric objective; nonlinear monetary policy rules; average inflation bias;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July.
  2. Brüggemann, Ralf & Riedel, Jana, 2011. "Nonlinear interest rate reaction functions for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1174-1185, May.
  3. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," FEP Working Papers 182, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  4. Gomes, O. & Mendes, D. A. & Mendes, V. P. & Sousa Ramos, J., 2007. "Endogenous Cycles in Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 139, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  5. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Measuring the Time-Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 0401006, EconWPA.
  6. Alexander Mihailov, 2005. "Has More Independence Affected Bank of England's Reaction Function under Inflation Targeting? Lessons from Taylor Rule Empirics," Economics Discussion Papers 601, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  7. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry L., 2006. "Do Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences Help Explain Observed Inflation Outcomes?," Staff General Research Papers 12501, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Simone Casellina & Mariacristina Uberti, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rate Dynamics: Taylor Rule Extensions," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 183-198, September.
  9. Gomes, Orlando, 2006. "Monetary policy and economic growth: combining short and long run macro analysis," MPRA Paper 2849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. L'OEILLET, Guillaume & LICHERON, Julien, 2010. "The asymmetric relationship between oil prices and activity in the EMU: Does the ECB monetary policy play a role?," MPRA Paper 26203, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  12. Carvalho, Alexandre & Moura, Marcelo L., 2008. "What Can Taylor Rules Say About Monetary Policy in Latin America?," Insper Working Papers wpe_126, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  13. George Christodoulakis & David Peel, 2009. "The Central Bank Inflation Bias in the Presence of Asymmetric Preferences and Non-Normal Shocks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1608-1620.

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