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Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences

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  • Paolo Surico

Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a new framework for monetary policy analysis in which the decision makers are allowed to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the target values. Reduced-form and structural estimates of the central bank first order condition indicate that the preferences of the Fed have been highly asymmetric only before 1979, with the response to output contractions being larger than the response to output expansions of the same magnitude. This asymmetry is shown to induce an average inflation bias of 1.11% that appears to have substantially contributed to the great inflation of the 1960s and 1970s

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 8.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:8

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Keywords: asymmetric objective; nonlinear monetary policy rules; average inflation bias;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alexander Mihailov, 2005. "Has More Independence Affected Bank of England's Reaction Function under Inflation Targeting? Lessons from Taylor Rule Empirics," Economics Discussion Papers 601, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  2. Simone Casellina & Mariacristina Uberti, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rate Dynamics: Taylor Rule Extensions," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 183-198, September.
  3. Manuel M F Martins & Alvaro Aguiar, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 41, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. L'OEILLET, Guillaume & LICHERON, Julien, 2010. "The asymmetric relationship between oil prices and activity in the EMU: Does the ECB monetary policy play a role?," MPRA Paper 26203, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Orlando Gomes & Diana A. Mendes & Vivaldo M. Mendes & José Sousa Ramos, 2006. "Endogenous Cycles in Optimal Monetary Policywith a Nonlinear Phillips Curve," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp1508, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
  6. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
  7. Gomes, Orlando, 2006. "Monetary policy and economic growth: combining short and long run macro analysis," MPRA Paper 2849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Ralf Brüggemann & Jana Riedel, 2010. "Nonlinear Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the UK," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2010-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  9. Surico, Paolo, 2003. "Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0291, European Central Bank.
  10. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  11. George Christodoulakis & David Peel, 2009. "The Central Bank Inflation Bias in the Presence of Asymmetric Preferences and Non-Normal Shocks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1608-1620.
  12. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July.
  13. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry, 2010. "Do asymmetric central bank preferences help explain observed inflation outcomes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 527-540, June.

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