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Nonlinear interest rate reaction functions for the UK

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  • Brüggemann, Ralf
  • Riedel, Jana

Abstract

We empirically analyze Taylor-type equations for short-term interest rates in the United Kingdom using quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 2006Q2. Starting from strong evidence against a simple linear Taylor rule, we model nonlinearities using logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models. The LSTR models with time-varying parameters consistently track actual interest rate movements better than a linear model with constant parameters. Our preferred LSTR model uses lagged interest rates as a transition variable and suggests that in times of recessions the Bank of England puts more weight on the output gap and less so on inflation. A reverse pattern is observed in non-recession periods. Parameters of the model change less frequently after 1992, when an inflation target range was announced. We conclude that for the analysis of historical monetary policy, the LSTR approach is a viable alternative to linear reaction functions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 1174-1185

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:1174-1185

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: Interest rate reaction functions Smooth transition regression model Monetary policy;

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References

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  14. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2003. "Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0206, European Central Bank.
  15. Castro, Vítor, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 872, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  16. Cukierman Alex & Muscatelli Anton, 2008. "Nonlinear Taylor Rules and Asymmetric Preferences in Central Banking: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Olivier Damette, 2013. "Mixture distribution hypothesis and the impact of a Tobin tax on exhange rate volatility : a reassessment," Working Papers of BETA 2013-07, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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