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Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data

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  • Janko Gorter
  • Jan Jacobs
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus expectations for inflation and output growth and we compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. According to the model with Consensus data, the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification the coefficient of inflation is not significantly different from zero. Only when using survey data we find that the ECB's policy has been stabilizing. Finally, using a framework suggested by English et al. (2003), we find support for both policy inertia and serially correlated errors in ECB Taylor rules.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 160.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:160

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Keywords: Taylor rule; ECB; real-time data; policy inertia; serial correlation;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.
  2. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.

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