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The Inflation Bias Result Revisited

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Author Info
Cukierman, A.

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Abstract

The Kydland-Prescott, Barro-Gordon inflation bias result relies on the presumption that policymakers aim at achieving a level of employment above the normal level. This presumption has been recently questioned by both academics and policymakers on the ground of realism. This note shows that even if policymakers are content with the normal level of employment there is an inflation bias if the following two realistic conditions are satisfied. The central bank is uncertain about the future state of the economy and is more sensitive to policy misses leading to employment below the normal level that to policy misses leading to employment above it. The note also shows that there is reason to believe the bias today is smaller than in the past and discusses the implications of the analysis for the design of legal central bank objectives.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tel Aviv in its series Papers with number 38-99.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:teavfo:38-99

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Postal: Israel TEL-AVIV UNIVERSITY, THE FOERDER INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH, RAMAT AVIV 69 978 TEL AVIV ISRAEL.
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Related research
Keywords: INFLATION ; DECISION MAKING;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution

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  1. Dolado, J.J. & Maria-Dolores, R. & Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2003. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Cahiers de recherche 18-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
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  2. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2002. "Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence," Cahiers de recherche 2002-07, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. A. Olmedo, 2002. "Asymmetries in the Central Bank Behaviour," THEMA Working Papers 2002-06, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Edward Kutsoati & Sharun Mukand, 2004. "Expectations and the Central Banker: Making Decisions the Market Expects to See? [revised]," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0418, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002. [Downloadable!]
  7. Juan de Dios Tena & Edoardo Otranto, 2006. "Modelling The Discrete And Infrequent Official Interest Rate Change In The Uk," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws062007, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  8. Giuseppe Diana & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2005. "Monetary policy in the presence of asymmetric wage indexation," Working Papers DULBEA 05-16.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry L., 2006. "Do Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences Help Explain Observed Inflation Outcomes?," Staff General Research Papers 12501, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry L., 2004. "Testing Commitment Models of Monetary Policy: Evidence from OECD Economies," Staff General Research Papers 11995, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Paolo Zagaglia, 2006. "How reliable are Taylor rules? A view from asymmetry in the U.S. Fed funds rate," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(14), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  12. Vladimir Kuzin, 2004. "The Inflation Aversion of the Bundesbank: A State Space Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 121, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  14. W.A. Bruinshoofd & B. Candelon, 2004. "Nonlinear monetary policy in europe: fact or myth?," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 758, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "Recession Aversion, Output and the Kydland-Prescott Barro-Gordon Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 3687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Katrin Wesche, 2003. "Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Time-Varying Taylor Rules," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse21_2003, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Paolo Surico, 2002. "Uncovering Policy Makers' Loss Function," Macroeconomics 0210003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Manuel M F Martins & Alvaro Aguiar, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 41, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  19. D H Kim & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2002. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's Monetary Policy Rule," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 18, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  20. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2001. "The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cahiers de recherche 2001-22, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Paolo Surico, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences," Macroeconomics 0210002, EconWPA, revised 09 Dec 2003. [Downloadable!]
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