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Measuring the Time Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy

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  • PAOLO SURICO

Abstract

This paper offers an alternative explanation for the great inflation of the 1970s by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time inconsistency. In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities generate a systematic inflation bias through the private-sector expectations of a larger policy response in recessions than in booms. The estimated Fed's implicit target for inflation has declined from the pre- to the post-Volcker regime. The average inflation bias was about 1% before 1979, but this has disappeared over the last two decades, because the preferences on output stabilization were large and asymmetric only in the former period. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2007.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 75 (2008)
Issue (Month): 297 (02)
Pages: 22-38

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:75:y:2008:i:297:p:22-38

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