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Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?

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Barry Eichengreen

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Abstract

The crises of the 1990s convinced many observers that intermediate exchange rate arrangements are fragile and crisis prone. But advising emerging markets to abandon the exchange rate as an anchor for policy compels those issuing the call to offer an alternative. This paper asks whether inflation targeting is a viable alternative for emerging markets. It focuses on the distinctive characteristics of the policy environment that bear on its feasibility: fast pass through, the difficulty of forecasting inflation, liability dollarization, and imperfect credibility.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps36.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 36.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:36

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  1. Lavan Mahadeva & Gabriel Sterne, . "The role of short-run inflation targets and forecasts in disinflation," Bank of England working papers 167, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Philip Arestis & Luiz Fernando de Paula & Fernando Ferrari-Filho, 2006. "Inflation Targeting In Emerging Countries: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 42, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  3. Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza & Cecília Rutkoski Hoff, 2003. "O Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Flutuação Genuína ou Medo de Flutuação?," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c60, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  4. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and 'Fear of Floating'," Studies in Economics 0605, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  5. Matias Vernengo, 2006. "The Political Economy of Monetary Institutions in Brazil: The Limits of the Inflation Targeting Strategy, 1999-2005," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2006_05, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  6. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  7. Federico Ravenna, 2005. "The European Monetary Union as a Commitment Device for New EU Member States," Working Papers 98, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Thomas D. Willett, 2002. "Fear of Floating Needn't Imply Fixed Rates: Feasible Options for Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2002-18, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lucjan Orlowski & Krzyzstof Rybinski, 2005. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland’s Monetary Policy," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp802, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Márcio Holland, 2005. "Monetary And Exchange Rate Policy In Brazil After Inflation Targeting," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 032, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  11. Márcio Holland, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Fear of Floating in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages 279-292. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," Macroeconomics 0503022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein, & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America," Working Papers 67, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Luis Ignacio Jácome & Eric Parrado, 2007. "The Quest for Price Stability in Central America and the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 07/54, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Gilda Fernandez & Cem Karacadag & Rupa Duttagupta, 2004. "From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Towards Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Working Papers 04/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Gerald Epstein, 2007. "Central banks, inflation targeting and employment creation," Economic and Labour Market Papers 2007/02, International Labour Office. [Downloadable!]
  18. Thiago Veloso & Roberto Meurer & Sergio Da Silva, 2008. "Optimal control theory for inflation targeting," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(24), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  19. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  20. Marcelo Sánchez, 2005. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates - do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," Working Paper Series 548, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Marcelo Sánchez, 2006. "How does information affect the comovement between interest rates and exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 608, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  22. Peter Wilson & Henry Ng Shang Ren, 2006. "Managing Exchange Rate Volatility: A Comparative Counterfactual Analysis of Singapore 1994 to 2003," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0608, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  23. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The EU Candidate Countries," Macroeconomics 0501037, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  24. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2005. "Institutions, Arrangements, and Preferences for Inflation Stability: Evidence and Lessons from a Panel Data Analysis," Emory Economics 0501, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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