Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan
AbstractA near-consensus position in modern macroeconomics is that policy rules have greater advantage over discretion in improving economic performance. For developing countries in particular, simple instrument rules appear to be feasible options as prerequisites since more sophisticated targeting rules are generally lacking. Using Pakistan’s data, this study has attempted to estimate the Taylor rule and use it as monetary policy strategy to simulate the economy. Our results indicate that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has not been following the Taylor rule. In fact, the actual policy has been an extreme deviation from it. On the other hand, counterfactual simulation confirms that macroeconomic performance could have been better in terms of stability of inflation and output, had the Taylor rule been adopted as monetary policy strategy. The study also establishes that further gains are possible if the parameter values of the rule are slightly modified.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.
Volume (Year): 49 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Taylor Rule; Macroeconomic Performance; Counterfactual Simulation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
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- Nadia Saleem, 2010. "Adopting Inflation Targeting in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 51-76, Jul-Dec.
- Ather Maqsood Ahmed & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2011. "The Economics of Inflation, Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rule, and Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 213-232, September.
- Inayat Ullah Mangla, 2011. "Reconstructing the Performance of Pakistan’s Political Economy: Another Paradigm," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 30-70, September.
- Nadia Tahir, 2013. "Forward-Looking and Backward-Looking Taylor Rules: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 121-145, July-Dec.
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