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The Present and Future of Monetary Policy Rules

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Author Info
Bennett T. McCallum

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Abstract

To consider the prospects, looking 20-30 years into the future, for monetary policymaking in accordance with policy rules, one must evaluate their present importance. That requires some definition of what constitutes rule-based monetary policy in practice, since no actual central bank will ever be literally bound by any simple formula (or any strict optimal control scheme). Consideration of the rules-versus-discretion literature, plus more recent analysis by Woodford (1999), indicates that rule-based policy is conducted to satisfy relationships specified from a timeless perspective.' Given this conception, it seems reasonably clear that today's prominent regimes (e.g., inflation targeting) do largely represent rule-based policymaking. Whether these will prevail into the future will depend in part on political trends, but their fundamental soundness gives room for hope. Regarding the effects of a gradually diminishing role of money, it would appear that the feasibility and attractiveness of rule-based policymaking will not be seriously impaired so long as a tangible medium of exchange has some importance, even if small. In the complete absence of monetary transactions, there would be no monetary policy of any type, rule-based or discretionary. But it seems highly unlikely that money will disappear in the foreseeable future.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7916.

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Date of creation: Sep 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7916

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1980. "Rules, Discretion, and the Role of the Economic Advisor," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 199-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  2. Buiter, Willem H, 1998. "The Young Person's Guide to Neutrality, Price Level Indeterminacy, Interest Rate Pegs and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 1799, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Joel Bogdanski & Alexandre Antonio Tombini & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 1, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1986. "Bank Deregulation, Accounting Systems of Exchange , and the Unit of Account: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 1572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army With Only a Signal Corps," NBER Working Papers 7420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jensen, Henrik, 1999. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army with Only a Signal Corps?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 321-38, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Charles Goodhart, 2000. "Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution?," FMG Special Papers sp125, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1988. "Financial deregulation, monetary policy, and central banking," Working Paper 88-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1988:i:may:p:3-22:n:v.74no.3 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Woodford, M., 1997. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Papers 632, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  18. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Leonardo Leiderman & Hadas Bar-Or, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Transmission Mechanisms Under Inflation Targeting in Israel," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 71, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  20. Svensson, Lars E O & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlo Altavilla, 2003. "Assessing monetary rules performance across EMU countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 131-151. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Dionísio Dias Carneiro & Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2001. "Inércia de Juros e Regras de Taylor: explorando as Funções de Resposta a Impulso em Um Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Com Parâmetros Estilizados para o Brasil," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 026, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Wiliam Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-6, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kevin Joseph Carey & Evan Tanner, 2005. "The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output," IMF Working Papers 05/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2004. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How precisely can we estimate them?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 132, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mohsin S. Khan, 2003. "Current Issues in the Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 03/56, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Akyazi, Haydar & Artan, Seyfettin, 2006. "Reflections of the New Economy on the monetary policy and central banking," MPRA Paper 152, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. William A. Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary policy, endogenous inattention, and the volatility trade-off," Working Paper 0411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss, 2009. "Strict and Flexible Inflation Forecast Targets: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 202009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Haydar, Akyazi & Seyfettin, Artan, 2006. "The reflections of new economy on monetary policy and central banking," MPRA Paper 603, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
  11. Frank Hespeler, 2008. "Solution Algorithm to a Class of Monetary Rational Equilibrium Macromodels with Optimal Monetary Policy Design," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 207-223, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a World Without Money," NBER Working Papers 7853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Helmut Wagner, 2001. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 01/184, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.

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