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Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil

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Author Info
Joel Bogdanski
Alexandre Antonio Tombini
Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang
Abstract

Brazil has put in place an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy in mid-1999, less than six months after moving to a floating exchange rate system. This paper presents the macroeconomic background that has led to the shift in monetary policy regime, and describes the general institutional arrangements and operational framework that has been adopted. The paper also discusses the basic modeling approach that has aided the decision-making process in the initial phase of inflation targeting in Brazil. We describe the family of small-scale macroeconomic models that has been used for informing and disciplining discussions about monetary policy within the Central Bank. These models contain few equations and few variables, but carry a considerable theoretical content and provide a stylized representation of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. They are easily understood, and especially suitable for simulation of a wide range of issues. We conclude with the main lessons that may be drawn from the initial Brazilian experience with inflation targeting.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 1.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:1

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ilan Goldfajn & Sergio R.C. Werlang, 2000. "The pass-through from depreciation to inflation : a panel study," Textos para discussão 423, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  6. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, . "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio Kanczuk, 2004. "Real Interest Rates and Brazilian Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 436-455, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Strachman, Eduardo, 2009. "Implementing inflation targeting in Brazil: an institutional analysis," MPRA Paper 15131, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2009. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "The Present and Future of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 7916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo & Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Osmani Teixera de Carvalho Guillén, 2004. "Estimating Potential Output And The Output Gap For Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  5. Philip Arestis & Luiz Fernando de Paula & Fernando Ferrari-Filho, 2006. "Inflation Targeting In Emerging Countries: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 42, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dionísio Dias Carneiro, 2000. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: what difference does a year make?," Textos para discussão 429, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  7. Victor Bystrov, 2006. "Forecasting Emerging Market Indicators: Brazil and Russia," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/12, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Elaine Cristina de Piza & Joilson Dias, 2006. "Novo Consenso Macroeconômico E Política Monetária No Brasil: Uma Avaliação Empírica," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 164, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pedro H. Albuquerque & Solange Gouvea, 2005. "Canaries and Vultures: A Quantitative History of Monetary Mismanagement in Brazil," Development and Comp Systems 0511027, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Guy Debelle, 2001. "The Case for Inflation Targeting in East Asian Countries," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.), Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  11. Guillermo Ortiz, 2002. "Central bank perspectives on stabilization policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 37-68. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Guillermo Ortiz, 2002. "Monetary policy in a changing economic environment : the Latin American experience," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 207-239. [Downloadable!]
  14. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Frank A. Wolak, 2003. "Designing Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets for Latin American Countries," RES Working Papers 1003, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Morón, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2002. "Reglas de política monetaria para economías financieramente vulnerables," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 8, pages 49-76. [Downloadable!]
  17. Alberto Melo, 2003. "La competitividad de Perú después de la década de reforma: Diagnóstico y propuestas," RES Working Papers 1004, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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