IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v28y2011i1-2p118-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A macroeconometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Hassan, Rubina
  • Shahzad, Mirza Muhammad

Abstract

This paper attempts to establish the quantitative importance of the various channels of monetary transmission by constructing, estimating and simulating a small macroeconometric model of Pakistan's monetary sector, while using data from the monetary statistics and the monetary survey of the State Bank of Pakistan over 1976-2007. The paper elucidates that the key feature of the study of monetary policy in Pakistan has been preoccupied with neglect either of the demand or the supply function of money and shows how this may lead to imprecise policy actions and mistaken conclusions. Accordingly, we delineate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by taking into consideration all structural money demand and money supply linkages along with the historically implied identifying assumption in the framework of a marginalized macroeconometric model. The within-sample and out-of-sample evaluations of the model are found satisfactory. The paper presents results of three policy simulations from the estimated model that highlight the impact of alternative monetary policy instruments on the monetary variables under a rule-based and a discretionary policy environment. We find that (i) the SBP subscribes to an unannounced monetary policy rule, (ii) the determination of the policy rate under the announced rule environment stabilizes the monetary sector in that convergence to full equilibrium is smooth and rapid, (iii) a 100Â bps reduction in the discount rate, ceteris paribus, decreases money supply by 4.97%, and (iv) the long term implication of reducing (increasing) the reserve requirement ratio on time (demand) deposits, ceteris paribus, is only higher inflation. Finally, we establish that a 100Â bps increase in interest rate increases money supply by 3.14% in full equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan, Rubina & Shahzad, Mirza Muhammad, 2011. "A macroeconometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 118-137, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:118-137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264-9993(10)00195-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leeper, Eric M., 1997. "Narrative and VAR approaches to monetary policy: Common identification problems," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 641-657, December.
    2. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    4. M.A. Akhtar, 1974. "The Demand for Money In Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 40-54.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    6. Akhtar Hossain, 1994. "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function for Pakistan: An Application of the Method of Cointegration," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 969-983.
    7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    9. Tao Zha, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy: a primer," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 2), pages 26-43.
    10. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    11. Hafiz A. Pasha & M. Aynul Hasan & Aisha Ghaus & M. Ajaz Rasheed, 1996. "Integrated Social-sector Macroeconometric Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 567-579.
    12. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    13. Christopher A. Sims, 2007. "Monetary Policy Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 75-90.
    14. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.
    15. Asif Idrees Agha & Noor Ahmed & Yasir Ali Mubarik & Hastam Shah, 2005. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 1, pages 1-23.
    16. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    17. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    18. K. H. Imam, 1970. "A Structural Model of Pakistan's Monetary Sector," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 359-380.
    19. Parke, William R, 1987. "Macroeconometric Model Comparison and Evaluation Techniques: A Practical Appraisal," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 133-144, April.
    20. Kalbe Abbas & Muhammad Ali Qasim, 1993. "An Analysis of Monetary Policy in Controlling the Monetary Assets in Pakistan: A Money Multiplier Approach (1971-72 to 1989-90)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1043-1054.
    21. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, March.
    22. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2010. "Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 37-56.
    23. Hanif, M Nadim & Hyder, Zulfiqar & Lodhi, M Amin Khan & Khan, Mahmood ul Hassan & Batool, Irem, 2008. "A small-size macroeconometric model for Pakistan economy," MPRA Paper 22930, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    24. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
    25. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
    26. Naved Ahmad & Fareed Ahmed, 2006. "The Long-run and Short-run Endogeneity of Money Supply in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 267-278..
    27. Goodfriend, Marvin & McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1480-1507, July.
    28. Blejer,Mario I. & Eckstein,Zvi & Hercowitz,Zvi & Leiderman,Leonardo (ed.), 1996. "Financial Factors in Economic Stabilization and Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521480505.
    29. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Money may matter, but how could you know?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 89-99, August.
    30. Zulfiqar Hyder & Adil Mahboob, 2006. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 237-263..
    31. Judd, John P & Scadding, John L, 1982. "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function: A Survey of the Post-1973 Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 993-1023, September.
    32. W.E. Norton & A.M. Cohen & K.M. Sweeny, 1970. "A Model of the Monetary Sector," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    33. Christopher A. Sims, 2007. "Monetary Policy Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 75-90.
    34. Noor Ahmed & Hastam Shah & Asif Idrees Agha & Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 09, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    35. John P. Judd & John L. Scadding, 1982. "The search for a stable money demand function: a survey of the post- 1973 literature," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 109, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    36. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 145-164.
    37. Edgar L. Feige, 2005. "Expectations And Adjustments In The Monetary Sector," Macroeconomics 0502005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    39. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1997. "Identification and the narrative approach: A reply to Leeper," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 659-665, December.
    40. David H. Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
    41. I. U. Mangla, 1979. "An Annual Money Demand Function for Pakistan. Some Further Results," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 21-33.
    42. Christ, Carl F, 1971. "Econometric Models of the Financial Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 419-449, May.
    43. repec:pri:cepsud:155sims is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    45. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1994. "Monetary policy matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, August.
    46. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rubina Hassan, 2011. "The Reserve Equation and the Analytics of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 111-142, Jan-Jun.
    2. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    2. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    3. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    4. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    5. Sun, Rongrong, 2013. "Does monetary policy matter in China? A narrative approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-74.
    6. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    7. Eric Monnet, 2014. "Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 137-169, October.
    8. Mohamed Douch, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy and Financial Crisis," Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, Cankaya University, Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 1(7), pages 1-35, May.
    9. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Methodological Issues," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), The Monetary Transmission Process, chapter 1, pages 11-59, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
    12. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    13. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in vector autoregressions: A new approach using central bank communication," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4278-4285.
    14. Stefan Schiman & Harald Badinger, 2020. "Measuring Monetary Policy with Residual Sign Restrictions at Known Shock Dates," WIFO Working Papers 608, WIFO.
    15. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    16. Sun, Rongrong, 2014. "Review over Empirical Evidence on Real Effects of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 58513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. John W. Keating & Logan J. Kelly & A. Lee Smith & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2019. "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 227-259, February.
    18. Choi, Jae-Young & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "The Predictive Power of Alternative Indicators of Monetary Policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 581-610, October.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    20. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Construction/estimation of monetary sector model (C51) Quantitative policy modeling (C54) Monetary policy (E52) Money supply (E51) Interest rate determination (E43) Central Banks and their policies (E58) Forecasting and Simulation (C53);

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:118-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.