IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sbp/journl/13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Zulfiqar Hyder

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Adil Mahboob

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

This paper estimates equilibrium real effective exchange rate (EREER) and exchange rate misalignment for Pakistan. Using the annual data from FY78 to FY05, Engle Granger co-integration technique is used to estimate the EREER based on various macroeconomic fundamentals suggested in economic literature by Edwards (1988, 1989, 1994), Elbadawi (1994), and Montiel (1997). The results indicate that EREER is determined by terms of trade, trade openness, net capital inflows, relative productivity differential, government consumption, and workers’ remittances. Trade openness, the increase in government consumption and capital inflows depreciate the REER, while, the increase in workers’ remittances and the improvement in terms of trade and total factor productivity relative to trading partners appreciate REER. The coefficients of the error correction term indicate the gradual convergence of the exchange rate toward long-run equilibrium. The estimated long run EREER and degree of exchange rate misalignment reveal that exchange rate misalignment ranged between -11.1 percent to 20.1 percent with zero reversion mean from FY78 to FY05 reflecting the long-term convergence tendency of actual REER toward EREER in Pakistan. Furthermore, the actual REER of FY05 is slightly depreciated in the range of 1.8-2.4 percent on the basis of two estimated regressions while one equation reflects an appreciation of 2.0 percent relative to EREER. This suggests that the current exchange rate is not too far away from the EREER and more or less reflects the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. The result also reflects that the exchange rate misalignment and its volatility in REER measured by standard deviation tend to be smaller in the flexible exchange rate regime as compared to others

Suggested Citation

  • Zulfiqar Hyder & Adil Mahboob, 2006. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 237-263..
    • Handle: RePEc:sbp:journl:13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/research/bulletin/2006/Equilibrium_Real_Effective_Exchange_Rate.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Pollin, 1991. "Two Theories of Money Supply Endogeneity: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 366-396, March.
    2. Bala Shanmugam & Mahendhiran Nair & Ong Wee Li, 2003. "The endogenous money hypothesis: empirical evidence from Malaysia (1985-2000)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 599-611.
    3. Kevin S. Nell, 2000. "The Endogenous/Exogenous Nature of South Africa’s Money Supply Under Direct and Indirect Monetary Control Measures," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 313-329, December.
    4. Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2001. "The Endogenous Money Hypothesis: Some Evidence from Spain (1987–1998)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 509-526, March.
    5. Arestis, Philip & Howells, Peter, 1996. "Theoretical Reflections on Endogenous Money: The Problem with 'Convenience Lending.'," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 20(5), pages 539-551, September.
    6. P. G. Moll, 1999. "Money, Interest Rates, Income and Inflation in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 67(1), pages 15-30, March.
    7. Cottrell, Allin, 1994. "Post-Keynesian Monetary Economics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 18(6), pages 587-605, December.
    8. Thomas I. Palley, 1991. "The Endogenous Money Supply: Consensus and Disagreement," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 397-403, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthew McCartney, 2015. "The Missing Economic Magic: The Failure of Trade Liberalization and Exchange Rate Devaluation in Pakistan, 1980–2012," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(Special E), pages 59-86, September.
    2. Adnan KHURSHID & Yin KEDONG & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN & Zhaosu MENG & Naila NAZIR, 2018. "Remittances Inflows, Gain of Foreign Exchange or Trade Loss? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle-Income Groups," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-41, December.
    3. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2011. "Workers’ Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 45-99, January.
    4. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.
    5. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    6. Burhan Ahmad & Ole Gjølberg, 2015. "Are Pakistan’s Rice Markets Integrated Domestically and With the International Markets?," SAGE Open, , vol. 5(3), pages 21582440155, July.
    7. Nadia Tahir, 2013. "Forward-Looking and Backward-Looking Taylor Rules: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 121-145, July-Dec.
    8. Mariem Brahim & Nader Nefzi & Hamed Sambo, 2017. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?," Working Papers hal-01583564, HAL.
    9. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Yasin Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, and Competitiveness: a Bayesian Analysis," Post-Print hal-01884858, HAL.
    10. M. Lopreite, 2012. "The endogenous money hypothesis and securitization: the Euro area case (1999-2010)," Economics Department Working Papers 2012-EP02, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    11. Naved Hamid & Azka Sarosh Mir, 2017. "Exchange Rate Management and Economic Growth: A Brewing Crisis in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(Special E), pages 73-110, September.
    12. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    13. Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio & Mishra, Prachi, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Zeyneb GUELLIL & Fatima Zohra MAROUF & Mohammed Benbouziane, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: An Empirical Study Using Panel Data from 1980 to 2013," MIC 2017: Managing the Global Economy; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Monastier di Treviso, Italy, 24–27 May 2017,, University of Primorska Press.
    15. Sarah Lynne Salvador Daway-Ducanes & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2019. "Manufacturing and Services Growth in Developing Economies: ‘Too Little’ Finance?," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 19(1), pages 55-82, January.
    16. Hassan, Rubina & Shahzad, Mirza Muhammad, 2011. "A macroeconometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 118-137, January.
    17. Fizza Malik, 2016. "Modeling Dynamics of Exchange Rates Volatility: A Case of Pakistan from 1980-2010," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 144-161, September.
    18. Ujjal Protim Dutta & Partha Pratim Sengupta, 2018. "Remittances and Real Effective Exchange Rate," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 19(1), pages 124-136, March.
    19. Zainab Jehan & Iffat Irshad, 2020. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth inPakistan: The Role of Financial Development," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 81-99.
    20. Jesus Felipe, 2009. "Does Pakistan Need To Adopt Inflation Targeting? Some Questions," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 113-162.
    21. Dorsaf Sridi & Wafa Ghardallou, 2021. "Remittances and disaggregated country risk ratings in Tunisia: an ARDL approach," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 191-211, January.
    22. Muhammad ASIF & Kashif RASHID, 2011. "Impact of Devaluation on Trade Balance in Pakistan," Oeconomics of Knowledge, Saphira Publishing House, vol. 3(3), pages 16-25, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Lopreite, 2012. "The endogenous money hypothesis and securitization: the Euro area case (1999-2010)," Economics Department Working Papers 2012-EP02, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    2. Oguzhan Cepni & Ibrahim Ethem Guney, 2017. "Endogeneity of Money Supply: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 01-10, January.
    3. Badarudin, Z.E. & Ariff, M. & Khalid, A.M., 2013. "Post-Keynesian money endogeneity evidence in G-7 economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 146-162.
    4. Kevin S. Nell, 2000. "The Endogenous/Exogenous Nature of South Africa’s Money Supply Under Direct and Indirect Monetary Control Measures," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 313-329, December.
    5. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.
    6. Aleš Krejdl, 2003. "Alternativní postkeynesovské modely determinace peněžní zásoby [Alternative post-keynesian models of money supply determination]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(2), pages 263-285.
    7. Duccio Cavalieri, 2004. "On Some Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Theories of Endogenous Money: A Structuralist View," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 12(3), pages 51-83.
    8. Rahimi , Azadeh, 2019. "The Endogenous or Exogenous Nature of Money Supply: Case of Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 14(1), pages 27-40, January.
    9. Yannis Panagopoulos & Aristotelis Spiliotis, 2006. "Testing Money Supply Endogeneity: The Case of Greece (1975-1998)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 85-102.
    10. Hein, Eckhard, 2010. "The rate of interest as a macroeconomic distribution parameter: Horizontalism and Post-Keynesian models of distribution of growth," MPRA Paper 23372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bozhechkova Alexandra & Trunin Pavel & Sinelnikova-Muryleva Elena & Petrova Diana & Chentsov Alexander, 2018. "Building of monetary and currency markets models," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 175P, pages 1-96.
    12. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2013. "Money Supply and Monetary Policy in Russia: A Post-Keynesian Approach Revisited," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-04/13, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    13. Mark Setterfield, 2014. "An essay on horizontalism, structuralism and historical time," Working Papers 1402, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    14. Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2006. "How much control does Bank of Russia have over money supply?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 131-144, June.
    15. Giuseppe Fontana, 2004. "Rethinking Endogenous Money: A Constructive Interpretation Of The Debate Between Horizontalists And Structuralists," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 367-385, November.
    16. Prakash Kumar Shrestha, Ph.D., 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of Money Supply Process in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 25(2), pages 17-42, October.
    17. Jan Korda, 2011. "Monetární nerovnováha v teorii endogenních peněz [Monetary Disequilibrium in the Theory of Endogenous Money]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(5), pages 680-705.
    18. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur & Togay, Selahattin, 2012. "A direct test of the endogeneity of money: Implications for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 577-585.
    19. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "Does the stock of money have any causal significance?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(225), pages 113-136.
    20. Joerg Bibow, 2005. "Liquidity Preference Theory Revisited—To Ditch or to Build on It?," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0508003, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sbp:journl:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Faisal Saleem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbpgvpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.