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The Endogenous/Exogenous Nature of South Africa's Money Supply Under Direct and Indirect Monetary Control Measures

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  • Kevin S. Nell

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Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to describe South Africa's money supply process along several competing, but not mutually exclusive, theoretical paradigms over the period 1966-1997. The most important conclusion to be drawn from the empirical results is that irrespective of the monetary system at the time, the money supply process in South Africa is endogenously determined. The empirical analysis further shows that the inability of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to reach predetermined M3 monetary growth targets on a consistent basis since the mid 1980s is the direct result of an endogenous money supply and not, as a previous study claims, because of an unstable M3 velocity. Although the M3 velocity is stable over the whole period 1966-1997, money income determined an endogenous money supply, so that the M3 money supply lost its effectiveness as a leading indicator for monetary policy. The policy implication is that the SARB controlled the M3 money supply indirectly over the period 1980-1997, through an increase in interest rates, and at the potential cost of a slowdown in economic activity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 9912.

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Date of creation: Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:9912

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

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Keywords: Exogenous/endogenous money supply; M3 velocity; Causality tests;

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  1. A.S. Hurn & V.A. Muscatelli, 1992. "The Long-run Properties of the Demand for M3 in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 60(2), pages 93-101, 06.
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Cited by:
  1. Yannis Panagopoulos & Aristotelis Spiliotis, 2006. "Testing Money Supply Endogeneity: The Case of Greece (1975-1998)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 85-102.
  2. Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2006. "How much control does Bank of Russia have over money supply?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 131-144, June.
  3. M. Lopreite, 2012. "The endogenous money hypothesis and securitization: the Euro area case (1999-2010)," Economics Department Working Papers 2012-EP02, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
  4. Prakash Kumar Shrestha Ph.D., 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of Money Supply Process in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 25(2), pages 17-42, October.
  5. Ho Dong Ching, 2011. "Endogenous Money - A Structural Model of Monetary Base," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ52, June.
  6. Cifter, Atilla & Ozun, Alper, 2007. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the New Economy: Evidence from Turkey (1997-2006)," MPRA Paper 2486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Nadia Tahir, 2013. "Forward-Looking and Backward-Looking Taylor Rules: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 121-145, July-Dec.

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