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Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model

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Abstract

We evaluate the macroeconomic performance of different monetary policy rules when there is exchange rate uncertainty. We do this in the context of a non-linear rational expectations model. The exchange rate is allowed to deviate from its fundamental value and the persistence of the deviation is modeled as a Markov switching process. Our results suggest that taking into account the switching nature of the economy is important only in extreme cases.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2007/NIPE_WP_26_2007.PDF
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 26/2007.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:26/2007

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Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
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Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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Keywords: Exchange Rates; Monetary Policy; Markov Switching.;

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  1. De Paoli, Bianca, 2009. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 11-22, February.
  2. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 841, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
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  6. Williams, John C. & Levin, Andrew T. & Wieland, Volker, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0068, European Central Bank.
  7. Adolfson, Malin, 2002. "Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Simple Monetary Policy Rules," Working Paper Series 136, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
  10. Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society.
  11. Fabrizio Zampolli, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: the response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Bank of England working papers 297, Bank of England.
  12. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
  14. Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
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  17. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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  19. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Working Paper 2008-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  20. Cambell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2006. " The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Exchange Rate Misalignments," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0605, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  21. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2006. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Working Papers 12442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  23. Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro, 2005. "Monetary policy, asset prices, and uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 37-42, January.
  24. Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2006. "Should Central Banks Target Consumer Prices or the Exchange Rate?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F208-F231, 06.
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Cited by:
  1. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & Vasco Gabriel, 2008. "Taylor-type rules versus optimal policy in a Markov-switching economy¤," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0608, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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