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The Relative Importance of Symmetric and Asymmetric Shocks: the Case of United Kingdom and Euro Area

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  • Gert Peersman

    ()
    (Ghent University)

Abstract

In this paper, we show how a simple model with sign restrictions can be used to identify symmetric and asymmetric supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a two-country structural VAR. The results can be used to deal with several issues that are important in the OCA-literature. Whilst the method can be applied to many countries, we provide evidence for the UK versus the Euro Area which are compared versus the US as a benchmark. An important role for symmetric shocks with the Euro Area in explaining UK output fluctuations is found. However, the relative importance of asymmetric shocks, being around 20 percent in the long-run, cannot be ignored. In contrast, the degree of business cycle synchronization seems to have been higher with the US. Moreover, the historical average reaction of the policy rate to symmetric aggregate demand shocks was stronger in the UK than the Euro Area. We also confirm existing evidence of the exchange rate being an important independent source of shocks in the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 136.

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Date of creation: 10 May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:136

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Related research

Keywords: optimal currency areas; symmetric and asymmetric shocks; vector autoregressions;

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Pedersen & Miguel Ricaurte B., 2014. "Effects of Oil-Price Shocks on The Economies Of Chile and Its Trading Partners," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(1), pages 38-65, April.
  2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.
  3. Cover, James P. & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2012. "Identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the UK," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1627-1648.
  4. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Teresa Maria Rodrigues & Maria Joana Soares, 2012. "Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area," NIPE Working Papers 07/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  5. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2008. "In or Out? The Welfare Costs of EMU Membership," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp1408, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
  6. Michael Pedersen & Miguel Ricaurte, 2013. "Efectos de Shocks al Precio del Petróleo sobre la Economía de Chile y sus Socios Comerciales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 691, Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Gerhard Fenz & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area," Working Papers 145, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  8. Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber," Working Papers 2012/09, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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