On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: Combining judgements with sample and model information
AbstractInstitutions which publish macroeconomic forecasts usually do not rely on a single econometric model to generate their forecasts. The combination of judgements with information from different models complicates the problem of characterizing the predictive density. This paper proposes a parametric approach to construct the joint and marginal densities of macroeconomic forecasting errors, combining judgements with sample and model information. We assume that the relevant variables are linear combinations of latent independent two-piece normal variables. The baseline point forecasts are interpreted as the mode of the joint distribution, which has the convenient feature of being invariant to judgments on the balance of risks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200821.
Date of creation: 2008
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Other versions of this item:
- Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 639-665, June.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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