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Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists

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Stark, Tom
Croushore, Dean

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 24 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 507-531
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:24:y:2002:i:4:p:507-531

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1997. "A Model Selection Approach To Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models And Artificial Neural Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 540-550, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Swanson, N.R., 1996. "Forecasting Using First Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time Series data," Papers 4-96-7, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  7. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-20. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tom Stark, 1998. "A Bayesian vector error corrections model of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Trivellato, Ugo & Rettore, Enrico, 1986. "Preliminary Data Errors and Their Impact on the Forecast Error of Simultaneous-Equations Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(4), pages 445-53, October.
  10. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
  12. Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Rosanne Cole, 1969. "Data Errors and Forecasting Accuracy," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 47-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  15. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
  16. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas, 1997. "Real-time GDP Growth Forecasts," Working Papers 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Implications of real-time data for forecasting and modeling expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 01-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  3. Masahiro Ashiya, 2005. "Twenty-two years of Japanese institutional forecasts," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 79-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93. [Downloadable!]
  6. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tom Bernhardsen & ØYvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Output gap revisions and challenges for monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 274, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Croushore, Dean, 2004. "Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Pär Österholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 07/176, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Has models’ forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," Working Papers 09-02, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dean Croushore, 2006. "An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data," Working Papers 06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  13. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Has Economic Models’ Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed Over Time, and When?," Working Papers 09-06, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2009. "Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth," Banco de España Working Papers 0912, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  15. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability. Evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  18. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Øyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Røisland, Øistein, 2004. "Real-time Data for Norway: Challenges for Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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