Forecasting Using First-Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time-Series Data
AbstractFirst-reported monthly and quarterly time-series data on nine macroeconomic variables from 1960-1993 are given. Features of this so-called "unrevised" or "first-reported data" are discussed, and the data is compared with standard "fully revised" data using Granger causality tests. For the purposes of real-time forecasting, as well as comparing professional forecasts with traditional econometric forecasts, the use of unrevised (or, even better, "real-time") data has a number of advantages over the use of fully revised data.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 1 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
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Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
Other versions of this item:
- Swanson, N.R., 1996. "Forecasting Using First Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time Series data," Papers 4-96-7, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
- C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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