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Forecasting Using First-Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time-Series Data

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  • Swanson Norman

    (Department of Economics Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

First-reported monthly and quarterly time-series data on nine macroeconomic variables from 1960-1993 are given. Features of this so-called "unrevised" or "first-reported data" are discussed, and the data is compared with standard "fully revised" data using Granger causality tests. For the purposes of real-time forecasting, as well as comparing professional forecasts with traditional econometric forecasts, the use of unrevised (or, even better, "real-time") data has a number of advantages over the use of fully revised data.

Suggested Citation

  • Swanson Norman, 1996. "Forecasting Using First-Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time-Series Data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:1:y:1996:i:1:n:da1
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1012
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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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