Real-time GDP Growth Forecasts
AbstractThe authors forecast current-quarter real GDP growth using monthly data that would have been available to an analyst in real time. They demonstrate that using real-time data is of major importance both when estimating GDP forecasting models and when evaluating their performance. Moreover, the authors show that the out-of-sample forecasting performance of their model is comparable or superior to that of the Blue-Chip consensus forecast provided that more than one month of current-quarter data are available
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 9710.
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
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- Balke, Nathan S & Petersen, D'Ann, 2002.
"How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively,"
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- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002.
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- Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
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- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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