How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively
AbstractEight times a year, approximately two weeks before every FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic conditions in the twelve Federal Reserve districts. Called the Beige Book, this description relies primarily on surveys and anecdotal evidence gathered by the twelve district banks. For this paper, we read and numerically scored past Beige Books in order to determine the extent to which the descriptions in these books accurately reflect current economic activity as measured by quarterly real GDP growth. We find that both in-sample and out-of-sample, the quantitative Beige Book indices do have significant predictive content for current and next quarter real GDP growth. Furthermore, the Beige Book has information about current quarter real GDP growth not present in other indicators such as the Blue Chip Consensus Forecast or time series models that use real-time data.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
Other versions of this item:
- Nathan S. Balke & D'Ann Petersen, 1998. "How well does the Beige Book reflect economic activity? Evaluating qualitative information quantitatively," Working Papers 98-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hamermesh, Daniel S & Biddle, Jeff E, 1994.
"Beauty and the Labor Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1174-94, December.
- Bharat Trehan, 1992. "Predicting contemporaneous output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
- Biddle, Jeff E & Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1998.
"Beauty, Productivity, and Discrimination: Lawyers' Looks and Lucre,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 172-201, January.
- Jeff E. Biddle & Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1998. "Beauty, Productivity and Discrimination: Lawyers' Looks and Lucre," NBER Working Papers 5366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas, 1997. "Real-time GDP Growth Forecasts," Working Papers 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Havrilesky, Thomas, 1990. "The Influence of the Federal Advisory Council on Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 37-50, February.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989.
"Scoring the Leading Indicators,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July.
- Havrilesky, Thomas, 1991. "The Frequency of Monetary Policy Signaling from the Administration to the Federal Reserve: Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 423-28, August.
- Bharat Trehan, 1989. "Forecasting growth in current quarter real GNP," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 39-52.
- Robert L. Lacy, 1999. "Gauging manufacturing activity: the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's survey of manufacturers," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 79-98.
- Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing Predictive Content of the KOF Barometer in Real Time," KOF Working papers 10-249, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Madeline Zavodny & Donna K. Ginther, 2003.
"Does the Beige Book move financial markets?,"
2003-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Michelle T. Armesto & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Kathryn Lundquist & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession," Working Papers 2011-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mine K. Yücel, 2000. "Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 2-10.
- Scott Hendry & Alison Madeley, 2010. "Text Mining and the Information Content of Bank of Canada Communications," Working Papers 10-31, Bank of Canada.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.