The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting
AbstractWe distinguish between three different strategies for estimating forecasting equations with real-time data and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses current-quarter monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using either of our two alternative methods, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is superior to that obtained using conventional estimation and compares favorably with that of the Blue Chip consensus. © 2003 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 85 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Other versions of this item:
- Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of "real-time" data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 00-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of "real-time" data in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 684, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Evan Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 2001-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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