Estimation of Current-Quarter Gross National Product by Pooling Preliminary Labor-Market Data
AbstractTwo methods of using labor-market data as indicators of contemporaneous gross national product (GNP) are developed. The establishment survey data are used by inverting a partial-adjustment equation for hours. A second GNP forecast can be extracted from the household survey by using Okun's law. Using preliminary rather than final data adds about .2 to .4 percentage points to the expected value of the root mean squared errors and changes the weights that the pooling procedures assigns to the two forecasts. The use of preliminary rather than final data results in a procedure that assigns more importance to the Okun's-law forecast.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 8 (1990)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
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