First announcements and real economic activity
AbstractThe recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the US have predictive power for the future course of the economy while the actual value of output growth does not. We show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship, whereby agents respond to perceptions instead of the truth, but may instead simply be a by-product of the data revision process. The revisions to the initial estimates which define the final values of the observations are shown to be key in determining any relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 54 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer
Announcements Real activity Data measurement Revisions;
Other versions of this item:
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2009. "First Announcements and Real Economic Activity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 885, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
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